The Morning Call--Recent study suggests Treasury bill issuance equivalent to QE

 

The Morning Call

 

7/30/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crypto-small-caps-clubbed-baby-seal-chaotic-week-looms

 

            Buyback window reopens.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-are-sellers-every-scenario-buyback-window-now-open-triggering-billions-daily-purchases

 

            Time for a bounce?

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/07/outstanding-gdp-data-suggests-its-bounce-time-for-stocks/

 

            So many all-time highs.

            https://allstarcharts.com/so-many-all-time-highs/

 

            Assessing the technical damage.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/assessing-the-technical-damage.html

 

            Ten year rates disconnecting from Fed expectations.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/10-year-interest-rates-disconnecting-further-from-fed-expectations/

 

Is the period of a strong dollar over? (a look at its long term chart suggests that it was over in 2022)

https://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/07/marc-chandler-writing-at-barrons.html

 

    Fundamental

 

            The Economy

 

                        US

 

The July Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -17.5 versus forecasts of -12.

 

                        International

 

The June Japanese unemployment rate was 2.5% versus expectations of 2.6%.

 

Q2 German flash GDP growth was -0.1% versus consensus of +0.1%; July CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%.

 

Q2 EU flash GDP growth was +0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%; the July economic sentiment index was 95.8 versus 95.4; the July industrial sentiment index was -10.5 versus -10.7; the July services sentiment index was 4.8 versus 5.5; the July consumer confidence index was -13, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Has the Fed waited too long to cut rates?

              https://www.morningstar.com/economy/has-fed-waited-too-long-cut-rates

 

              Rate cuts or job cuts?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-29/big-business-signals-to-fed-it-s-either-rate-cuts-or-job-cuts?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Recent study suggests that larger than average Treasury bill issuance is the equivalent of QE.

https://www.ft.com/content/f0f62f0b-fee2-463a-a075-3b8dab333f40

 

              National debt hits $35 trillion.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/27/us-national-debt-hits-35-trillion-debt-to-gdp-ratio-at-scary-levels-dips-a-tad-and-t-bills-share-of-this-debt/

 

              The Treasury announced its borrowing needs for Q3 and Q4.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-estimates-13-trillion-borrowing-needs-remainder-2024

 

              Yellen suggests $78 trillion to fight climate change.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/janet-yellen-seeks-just-78-trillion-fight-climate-change

 

            Recession

 

              RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/29/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

              Why have US stocks, gold and the dollar all been rising?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/guest-contribution-why-have-us-shares-gold-and-the-dollar-been-soaring

 

                  A surge in commercial property foreclosures suggests that a bottom is near.

              https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/surge-in-commercial-property-foreclosures-suggests-bottom-is-near-247bb689

 

     Bottom line

 

            Could a bull market just be getting started?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/29/bull-market-could-be-getting-started

 

            Is the tide turning for US stocks?

            https://www.ft.com/content/ceb540b4-e080-43f5-81b7-af15f534dc1a

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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