The Morning Call---Buyers are out of ammo

 

The Morning Call

 

7/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-pukes-worst-day-19-months-bonds-black-gold-bid

 

            The latest from Goldman’s funds flow guru (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/july-17th-marks-change-goldman-flows-guru-warns-markets-summer-slip-engaged

 

            Buyers are out of ammo.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/buyers-are-out-ammo

 

            Ten carnage charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/10-momo-carnage-charts

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 243,000 versus expectations of 230,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-rebounds-highest-aug-2023

 

June industrial production rose 0.6% versus forecasts of +0.3%; capacity utilization was 78.8% versus 78.4%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/17/recession-indicators-industrial-production-june-2024

 

The July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 13.9 versus projections of 2.9.

 

                        International

 

                          The May UK unemployment rate was 4.4%, in line.

 

                          May EU construction output fell 2.4% versus estimates of -0.9%.

 

The June Japanese trade balance was Y224.0 billion versus predictions of Y240.0 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Dollar weakens.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/dollar-falls-to-weakest-since-may-as-yen-rally-shakes-up-markets?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          A new era for the dollar?

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/politics/trump-vance-us-dollar.html

 

Gold prices driven higher by prospects for lower rates and a Trump victory.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/e9231adf-8f08-4dea-824c-b9723dc5d866

 

                          Three bad narratives.

                          https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/07/16/three-bad-narratives-that-are-dead-but-will-persist/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The ECB leaves rates unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-snoozes-ecb-holds-rates-unchanged-expected-not-pre-committing-particular-rate-path

 

              M2 growth slowdown gaining traction.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/17/m2-slowdown-gaining-traction-first-trust

 

              The Fed’s latest Beige Book release (meh).

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/feds-beige-book-slight-to-modest-pace.html

 

            Recession

 

              Inside the June retail sales data.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/16/retail-sales-excluding-autos-gasoline-jump-by-most-in-18-months-pushing-up-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-to-2-5-from-2-0-a-week-ago/

 

              The latest Q2 nowcasts.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-gdp-nowcast-reflects-slow-growth-for-upcoming-q2-report/

 

              IMF lowers outlook for US economy.

              https://thehill.com/business/4776036-imf-lowers-outlook-for-us-economy-while-warning-of-slower-disinflation/

           

              More on the crumbling commercial real estate market.

              https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/commercial-real-estate-mortgage-bond-defaults-eaa258bc?st=n8cblec5lka8eqe&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s tariffs will raise consumer prices.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariff-plan-will-raise-prices-consumers-just-bastiat-warned-170-years-ago

 

    Bottom line

 

            Did the AI bubble just burst and what happens next?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-ai-bubble-just-burst-and-what-happens-next

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin-Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.715/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

            Who was Mary Magdalene?

            Who was Mary Magdalene? Historians are still trying to figure that out. (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

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