The Morning Call---Trump 2.0 won't play outlike Trump1.0.

 

The Morning Call

 

7/24/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/small-caps-soar-short-squeeze-sloppy-surveys-crypto-crude-crack

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.2% while purchase applications were down 4.0%,

 

                          June existing home sales declined 5.4% versus forecasts of up 3.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/23/existing-home-sales-fall-further-as-median-price-reaches-record-high

 

The July Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -17 versus expectations of -7.

 

                        International

 

The July EU flash consumer confidence index was -13.0 versus consensus of -13.4.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/23/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-worsened-july-2024

 

The July Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus predictions of 47.0; the flash services PMI was 50.8 versus 50.9; the flash composite PMI was 50.2 versus 50.4; the July German flash manufacturing PMI was 42.6 versus 44.0; the flash services PMI was 52.0 versus 53.1; the flash composite PMI was 48.7 versus 50.7; the July EU flash manufacturing PMI was 45.6 versus 46.1; the flash services PMI was 51.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.1 versus 51.1; the July UK flash manufacturing PMI was 51.8 versus 51.1; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 52.5; the flash composite PMI was 52.7 versus 52.6.

 

The August German consumer confidence index was -18.4 versus estimates of -21.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on Recession Alert weekly leading economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/22/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                          The percentage of mortgages in forbearance increased in June.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Why is the deficit so big?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/trump-s-tax-cuts-vs-biden-s-spending-who-is-responsible-for-big-us-deficit?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

              Trump 2.0 will likely not play out like Trump 1.0.

              https://www.ft.com/content/0aca4515-757c-42d4-9e08-a7087d70133f

 

            Recession

 

Is this Goldilocks? I have lived through several periods in which the economy was characterized as Goldilocks. None of them turned out well. That doesn't mean that it won’t happen this time; but I am not letting my expectations get too high.

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-is-that-goldilocks-i-see/?src=news

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/small-cap-vs-large-cap-earnings-expectations/

 

              Mayhem within the junk debt markets.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/22/financial-conditions-in-la-la-land-loosest-since-nov-2021-but-cre-gets-strangled-and-corporate-bankruptcies-highest-since-2010/

 

Things fall apart---how can you have a recession when the demand for labor is outpacing the supply?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/23/things-do-fall-apart

 

The latest nowcast suggests a pickup in Q2 GDP growth.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q2-gdp-growth-set-for-modest-pickup-in-thursdays-report/#more-22533

 

Signs of credit card and auto loan stress.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/signs-severe-credit-card-and-auto-loan-stress-generation-z

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Canadian National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.84.

Revenue of C$4.33B (+6.7% Y/Y).

 Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares CAD 0.845/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

General Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q2 GAAP EPS of $3.26 misses by $0.07.

Revenue of $12B (+18% Y/Y) beats by $500M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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