The Morning Call
7/17/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-soars-record-high-stocks-do-something-not-seen-oct-1987
Beware of the ‘broadening
out’ narrative.
This is what a bull
market looks like.
https://allstarcharts.com/bull-market-2024/
Small caps. For
the record books.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/small-caps-record-books
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications were up 3.9% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.
June housing starts were up 3.0%, in line; June
building permits were up 3.4% versus
+0.5%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.
The July housing
index came in at 42 versus consensus of 44.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/nahb-builder-confidence-declined-in-july.html
International
June EU CPI came
in at +0.2%, in line; June UK CPI was up 0.1%, also in line.
Other
Monetary
Policy
Pay attention to money flows.
https://www.ft.com/content/c122f9ab-4f38-4163-9278-65e6e3cfac2f
Fiscal
Policy
Interest payments
now the second largest spending category in federal budget. Keep in mind that
this article notwithstanding, this couldn’t have happened without the
complicity of the republicans.
Here is a more realistic assessment of the
problem.
https://reason.com/2024/07/13/the-debt-lies-we-tell-ourselves/
And this from my favorite optimist.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/07/how-bad-is-fiscal-policy.html
How Wall Street keeps absorbing the Treasury’s
borrowing binge.
On the other hand,
the buildup of the regulatory regime is solely on the administration.
https://cei.org/blog/how-major-rules-are-surging-under-the-biden-administration/
Inflation
New homes seriously unaffordable.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/new-homes-seriously-unaffordable-in-us.html
The other yield curve flashes Trump trade
warning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/other-yield-curve-flashes-trump-trade-warning
Powell says inflation on the path to 2%.
Recession
Soft landing?
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-soft-landing-zone/?src=news
Five charts on the soft landing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/5-charts-soft-landing
Supply chain stresses coming back.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/supply-chain-stresses-coming-back/
Global economic growth projections for
2024/2025.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/july-2025-weo-update-released
Big four recession indicators.
Bottom line
Analysts getting
more bullish.
Will a goldilocks economy
keep the bull market humming?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-a-goldilocks-economy-keep-the-stock-market-humming/
On the other hand,
does a Fed rate cut signal lower equity prices? This thesis was proposed a year
ago by BofA (who incidentally has made several prescient market calls in the
recent past).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-rate-cuts-signal-sell-stocks-and-buy-bonds
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson
& Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.82 beats by $0.12.
Revenue
of $22.4B (+4.3% Y/Y) beats by $60M.
Johnson
& Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.24/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/if-people-dont-grasp-the-basics-then
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