The Morning Call
7/3/24
I am taking Friday off. Have a
great holiday. See you on Monday.
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bid-government-job-openings-suddenly-surge
Goldman’s
bull/bear indicator flashing red.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-bullbear-indicator-flashing-red
Flows and
positioning are not stretched.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/flows-positioning-supportive-just-fine-bull-market
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 2.6% while purchase applications were down 3.3%.
Weekly initial jobless
claims totaled 238,000 versus predictions of 235,000.
May job openings
(JOLTS) totaled 8.14 million versus forecasts of 7.91 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/02/job-openings-unexpectedly-rise-in-may
The May trade balance
was -$75.1 billion versus expectations of -$76.2 billion.
The June ADP
employment report showed an increase of 150,000 jobs versus estimates of +160,000.
International
May EU PPI was -0.2% versus consensus of
-0.1%.
The June Japanese
services PMI was 49.4 versus projections of 49.8; the composite PMI was 49.7
versus 50.0; the June Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.2 versus 53.4; the
composite PMI was 52.8 versus 53.6; the June German services PMI was 53.1 versus
53.5; the composite PMI was 50.4 versus 50.6; the June EU services PMI was 52.8
versus 52.6; the composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.8; the June UK services PMI
was 52.1 versus 51.2; the composite PMI was 52.3 versus 51.7.
Other
May median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/median-household-income-in-may-2024.html
Business cycle indicators as of July 1st.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/52725
Inflation
A closer look at yesterday’s EU inflation
data.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/euro-zone-inflation-june-2024.html
US home prices continue to rise but at a slower
pace.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/corelogic-us-home-prices-increased-49.html
Recession
Labor market showing signs of losing steam.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-labor-market-shows-signs-100000508.html
The global PMI
indicates growth continues to expand but input cost inflation is accelerating.
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b8ebd597eb8d475ab7ec04250bb31e1e
Bottom line.
Lack of diversification
has been the winning strategy. How long can that last?
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-sp-500-rules-everything-around-me/?src=news
More on
valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-june-2024
This article is
addressed to financial planners as a ‘how to’ during periods of Market turmoil.
However, it is also good advice to the investor.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/02/career-traps-advisors-taking-excess-risk
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
alleged affair that started the 100 years’ war.
The
alleged affair that started a century-long war (nationalgeographic.com)
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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