Wednesday, July 3, 2024

The Morning Call---The labor market showing signs of losing steam

 

The Morning Call

 

7/3/24

 

I am taking Friday off. Have a great holiday. See you on Monday.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bid-government-job-openings-suddenly-surge

 

            Goldman’s bull/bear indicator flashing red.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-bullbear-indicator-flashing-red

 

            Flows and positioning are not stretched.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/flows-positioning-supportive-just-fine-bull-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.6% while purchase applications were down 3.3%.

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 238,000 versus predictions of 235,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-disappoint-again-continuing-claims-worst-dec-2021

 

May job openings (JOLTS) totaled 8.14 million versus forecasts of 7.91 million.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/02/job-openings-unexpectedly-rise-in-may

 

The May trade balance was -$75.1 billion versus expectations of -$76.2 billion.

 

The June ADP employment report showed an increase of 150,000 jobs versus estimates of +160,000.

                                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-payrolls-disappoint-june-3rd-straight-monthly-decline-additions

 

                        International

 

                          May EU PPI was -0.2% versus consensus of -0.1%.

 

The June Japanese services PMI was 49.4 versus projections of 49.8; the composite PMI was 49.7 versus 50.0; the June Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.2 versus 53.4; the composite PMI was 52.8 versus 53.6; the June German services PMI was 53.1 versus 53.5; the composite PMI was 50.4 versus 50.6; the June EU services PMI was 52.8 versus 52.6; the composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.8; the June UK services PMI was 52.1 versus 51.2; the composite PMI was 52.3 versus 51.7.

 

                        Other

 

                          May median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/07/median-household-income-in-may-2024.html

 

                          Business cycle indicators as of July 1st.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/52725

 

            Inflation

 

              A closer look at yesterday’s EU inflation data.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/02/euro-zone-inflation-june-2024.html

 

              US home prices continue to rise but at a slower pace.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/corelogic-us-home-prices-increased-49.html

 

            Recession

 

              Labor market showing signs of losing steam.

              https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-labor-market-shows-signs-100000508.html

 

The global PMI indicates growth continues to expand but input cost inflation is accelerating.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b8ebd597eb8d475ab7ec04250bb31e1e

 

 

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Lack of diversification has been the winning strategy. How long can that last?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-sp-500-rules-everything-around-me/?src=news

 

            More on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/02/buffett-valuation-indicator-june-2024

 

This article is addressed to financial planners as a ‘how to’ during periods of Market turmoil. However, it is also good advice to the investor.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/02/career-traps-advisors-taking-excess-risk

               

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The alleged affair that started the 100 years’ war.

            The alleged affair that started a century-long war (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

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