The Morning Call---Thursday was a terrible day, technically speaking

 

The Morning Call

 

7/12/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nasdaq-pukes-worst-day-versus-small-caps-22-years-gold-soars-near-record-high-after-soft

 

            Thursday was a terrible day technically speaking.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/mostly-peaceful-terrible-thursday

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The June budget deficit was $66 billion versus estimates of $83 billion.

 

June PPI was up 0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%; core PPI was up 0.4% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-ppi-more-relevant-cpi-stocks

 

                        International

 

May Japanese industrial production was up 3.6% versus consensus of +2.8%.

 

The June Chinese trade balance was $99.1 billion versus projections of $85.0 billion.

 

The June German PPI was -0.3% versus forecasts of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Getting back to normal---from the creator of the Sahm Rule.

              https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/getting-back-to-normal

 

              The era of low interest rates is over.

              https://thehill.com/business/4764117-federal-reserve-interest-rate-policy/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              In June, interest on national debt was 30% of total tax receipts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-spent-record-140-billion-just-debt-interest-june-30-all-tax-revenues

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation in the charts.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/07/instantaneous-inflation-in-june

 

              Inside the June CPI number.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/11/cpi-components-breaking-down-the-june-2024-cpi

 

            Recession

           

              Home buyers remain on strike.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/10/home-buyers-remain-on-strike-housing-market-still-frozen-as-prices-are-too-high-mortgage-rates-still-7/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs don’t protect jobs (try to ignore the last paragraph).

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/07/tariffs-dont-protect-jobs-dont-be-fooled.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            The hidden danger in rate cuts. (BofA has been making this point for over a year.)

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-landing-or-hard-crash-hidden-danger-rate-cuts

 

            Does value matter anymore?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/07/11/value-matter-anymore-richard-bernstein

 

            Stocks look overbought.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-look-overbought-will-it-matter-anytime-soon/

 

            The lopsided performance within the S&P.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/percentage-of-sp-500-stocks-outperforming-the-index/

 

            Is the tech story changing?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/did-thursday-change-anything-tech-story

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.51 in-line.

Revenue of $1.92B (+2.1% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.39/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Microplastics in bloodstream increase risk of stroke.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/microplastics-bloodstream-increase-stroke-risk-45-fold-study

 

 

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