The Morning Call--Fed policy may be more dovish than Powell thinks

 

The Morning Call

 

10/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momo-meltdown-spreads-broad-market-bitcoin-bullion-extend-losses

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-goldmans-trading-desk-hedging-market-meltdown

 

            Bitcoin schizophrenia.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/dip-below-100k-seems-inevitable-stanchart-sees-bitcoin-200k-year-end

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The October UK industrial trends orders index was -38 versus estimates of -28; the Q4 business optimism index was -31 versus -29.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Fed policy may be more dovish than Powell thinks.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-22/fed-interest-rates-might-be-more-dovish-than-powell-thinks?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Determining Fed policy in the face of data uncertainty.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-cpi-release-clarify-or-blur-the-inflation-outlook/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Apparently, a (slim) majority of Americans favor the shutdown.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/10/shutdown-by-popular-demand.php

 

            Inflation

 

              The latest Campbell’s tomato soup can inflation indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/campbells-tomato-soup-registers-small.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              Most credit securitization relies on magical thinking.

              https://www.ft.com/content/6da7186a-f438-4256-9f0e-dbb3b25d5e58

 

              Another cockroach.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/another-cockroach-subprime-auto-lender-primalend-enters-bankruptcy

 

                  Is it 1925 all over again?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bezzel-it-1925-all-over-again

 

                Geopolitics

 

              The latest developments on Ukraine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/high-casualty-russian-attack-ukraine-nato-chief-washington

 

     Investing

 

            Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.

            Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

 

            Sanity check.

            https://brklyninvestor.com/2025/10/20/sanity-check/

 

            Playbook for bitcoin and gold.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/22/bitcoin-gold-hard-money-renaissance-playbook

 

Is the run in gold over?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/five-precious-metals-plays-to-lock-in-during-this-pullback?post=529812

 

                More on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-healthy-reset-or-just-overcrowded

 

                Circular investment deals in AI.

            https://mishtalk.com/economics/circular-investment-deals-in-ai-look-similar-to-the-dot-com-bubble/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.86/share quarterly dividend, 5% increase from prior dividend of $1.77.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The exercise that takes off 20 years.

            https://www.vogue.com/article/exercise-that-takes-off-20-years

 

            The benefits of creatine monohydrate.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pivotal-research-creatine-finds-foundational-applications-way-beyond-gym-including-brain

 

 

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The Morning Call---What hapened to gold?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/old-gold-dumped-new-gold-pumped-trump-trips-stocks

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/odd-feeling-here-goldman-delta-one-head-getting-nervous-says-real-risk-if-ai-story-cracks

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-top-3-risks-jpmorgan-traders-are-monitoring

 

            Risk on sentiment persists.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-persists-for-global-strategies/

           

            Will retail buy the dip?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-retail-step-and-buy-fing-dip

 

            Precious metals pummeled.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-pummeled

 

            What happened to gold?

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/what-earth-happened-gold-today-few-shocking-charts-goldmans-commodity-desk

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.3% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 5.0% versus up 5.9% in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

The September Japanese trade balance was -Y234.6 billion versus forecasts of -Y40.0 billion.

 

September UK CPI came in at 0.0% versus predictions of +0.2%; core CPI was also 0.0% versus +0.2%

 

                        Other

 

                          US agriculture sector under stress.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/econofact-the-u-s-agricultural-sector-under-stress

 

                          A whiff of consumer weakening?

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/redbook-philly-fed-whiff-of-consumer.html

 

            Overnight News

 

The US government shutdown is now the second-longest in history, and with Trump expected to head to Asia later this week, lawmakers and congressional aides see a real possibility of the closure extending into November.

 

US companies are beating earnings expectations at the highest rate in over four years, with 85% surpassing profit estimates in the third quarter so far.

 

Trump said he won't meet with Democratic leaders unless the government is reopened.

 

Trump's administration plans to release over USD 3bln in aid to US farmers previously frozen due to government shutdown.

 

US has offered energy companies access to nuclear waste that they can convert into fuel for advanced reactors in an attempt to break Russia’s stranglehold over uranium supply chains.

 

India and the United States are nearing a long-stalled trade agreement that would reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian imports to 15% to 16% from 50%, India's Mint reported on Wednesday citing three people aware of the matter. The deal, which hinges on energy and agriculture, may see India gradually scale back its imports of Russian crude oil.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Recent change in Fed policy helps stem liquidity problems.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/20/repo-market-brushfires-doused-by-banks-use-of-the-feds-standing-repo-facility-srf/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              We don’t need so much government.

              https://nypost.com/2025/10/19/opinion/the-shutdown-proves-it-we-dont-need-so-much-government-after-all/

 

              Big government, no growth.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/big-government-no-growth-the-implosion-of-statism?post=528037

 

            The Financial System

 

              The stable coin shock to the credit markets.

              https://openbanker.beehiiv.com/p/stablecoinshock

 

            China

 

              China’s economy has problems.

              China's Economy Has A Few Major Problems

 

     Investing

 

            How to deal with Market uncertainty.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-free-will/?src=news

 

            October outlook for S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            Does covered call writing present a superior strategy?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/options/effectiveness-of-covered-call-strategy-in-developed-and-emerging-markets?post=529569

 

            Common errors in equity valuation.

            https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5582990

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.79/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call---The zero risk illusion

 

The Morning Call

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/everything-bid

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-they-puked-low-now-its-melt-mode

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2025-stands-out-goldman-sentiment-signal-turns-red-stocks-record-highs

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-remain-remarkably-resilient-top-goldman-trader-says-geopolitics-arent-problem

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-you-want-be-serious-bear-right-now

           

            Margin debt jumps to record high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/20/margin-debt-finra-jumps-new-record-high-september-2025

 

            Silver’s melt up meets gravity.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/silvers-melt-meets-gravity-partys-over

 

            Gold euphoria turns dangerous.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/enough-enough-golds-euphoria-turns-dangerous

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Alternative data during shutdown.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/alternative-data-during-the-shutdown-2/

 

                          Estimated initial jobless claims are lower than last year.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/initial-claims-lower-than-one-year-ago.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Will Friday’s delayed CPI report derail the expected October rate cut?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-delayed-cpi-report-derail-another-rate-cut/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trade wars have undermined the dollar exchange system.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/20/trade_wars_have_undermined_the_dollar_exchange_system_1141841.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              The Tricolor debacle is not a sign of a weakened consumer.

 https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/17/ai-powered-tricolor-and-its-mushroom-cloud-of-fraud-allegations-are-a-sign-greedy-lenders-closed-their-eyes-for-years-not-a-sign-consumers-are-cracking-or-whatever/

 

                          How bad is it?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ndfis-are-new-alt-bofa-warns-forced-selling-if-private-credit-issues-persist-it-really-bad

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US/Australia sign major rare earths deal.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rare-earths-stocks-soar-after-mega-us-australia-minerals-deal-slash-dependence-china

 

     Investing

 

            Real time bubble check list.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/10/realtime-bubble-checklist/

 

A bad sign for the stock market (the author fails to note that investors have been BTFD since the 2009 low).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-a-bad-sign-for-the-stock-market-3c069d3b?st=xatmMm

 

            The zero risk illusion.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/20/psychology-investing-zero-risk-illusion

 

            The latest from the Portfolio Strategist.

            https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-19-oct

 

            Speculative bull run and the value of a bearish tilt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/speculative-bull-runs-and-value-bearish-tilt

 

            Three retirement mistakes to avoid.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2025/10/19/retirement-savings-mistakes/86724095007/

 

            A gold attribution model.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/10/gold-not-following-fundamental-model.html

 

            Is the gold correction over?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/doe-gold-correction-have-more-run

 

            Crypto world warning.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5548075-crypto-rug-pull-warning/

 

            Counterpoint.

                        https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/cryptos-latest-victim-is/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP824&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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