The Morning Call
7/31/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
The dollar rips.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/usd-rip-ripping
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 218,000
versus forecasts of 224,000.
June personal income
rose 0.3% versus projections +0.2%; June personal spending was up 0.3% versus
+0.4%.
June pending home sales declined 0.6% versus
estimates of +0.3%.
June core PCE was up 0.3%, in line.
International
June Japanese YoY
housing starts fell 15.6% versus consensus of -15.8%; June YoY construction output
was up 22.5% versus up 21.0%; the July consumer confidence index was 33.7 versus
35.1.
The June EU
unemployment rate was 6.2% versus expectations of 6.4%.
The June German
unemployment rate was 6.3% versus predictions of 6.4%; the July preliminary CPI
was 2.0% versus 1.9%.
Other
Mixed results in yesterday’s Q2 GDP number.
The problem with the BLS employment data.
The latest from Ed Yardini.
The
US Economy Is In The Cloud
Overnight
News
Trump announced a
trade agreement at 6:15pmET Wed night with South Korea – South Korea will be
charged a tariff of 15% (consistent w/Japan and the EU) and has pledged to
provide $350B for investment in the US w/another $100B intended for energy
purchases.
Trump once again
threatened to suspend trade talks with Canada, this time over Carney’s promise
to recognize Palestinian statehood.
BOJ left rates
unchanged, as expected, but raised its inflation forecasts, spurring
speculation that it could resume policy tightening later this year, although
Ueda’s language in the presser cooled speculation of an imminent hike.
Trump is set to
hold a phone call w/Mexico’s president Thurs morning as the two countries
search for a trade agreement ahead of the 8/1 deadline.
Top officials from
big US trading partners have rushed to Washington in a bid to strike last-ditch
trade dela with Trump less than 24 hrs. before being hit again with the
president’s highest levels of tariffs. Canada and Mexico sent delegations and
were locked in intense talks with the Trump admin on Wednesday.
Monetary
Policy
The FOMC wrapped
up its July meeting with slight dovish tone to its statement and the dot plot. Then
Powell spoiled the party in his hawkish presser.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-1
Fiscal
Policy
Recklessly ballooning US government debt.
Inflation
New home sales are declining but prices are
still rising.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/new-home-market-cap-rises-as-number-of.html
Recession
Another canary.
Sysco CEO warns consumer confidence not high.
Tariffs
The
second best solution.
Few details in any of the Trump tariff deals.
Investing
US equity
multiples are back at cycle highs.
Goldman trader
worried about what is going on beneath the surface.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Automatic Data Processing Non-GAAP
EPS of $2.26 beats by $0.03, revenue of $5.1B beats by $50M
Altria Non-GAAP EPS of $1.44 beats by
$0.06, revenue of $6.1B beats by $910M
Microsoft GAAP EPS of $3.65 beats by
$0.27, revenue of $76.4B beats by $2.57B
Qualcomm Non-GAAP EPS of $2.85 beats
by $0.14, revenue of $10.98B beats by $630M
Mastercard Non-GAAP EPS of $4.15
beats by $0.13, revenue of $8.1B beats by $120M
AbbVie Non-GAAP EPS of $2.97
beats by $0.06, revenue of $15.42B beats by $390M
What
I am reading today
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