The Morning Call---Biggest short covering panic on record

 

The Morning Call

 

5/14/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/crude-crypto-mega-caps-soar-cpi-saudis-giant-short-squeeze

 

            Tuesday in the tech stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            Biggest short covering panic on record.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-capitulate-second-biggest-short-covering-panic-record-during-monday-meltup

 

            Dollar remains on its back foot.

                        https://talkmarkets.com/content/currenciesforex/us-dollar-remains-on-the-backfoot-in-tepid-reaction-to-steady-cpi?post=497306

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 1.1% while purchase applications were up 2.3%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The April small business optimism index came in at 95.8 versus forecasts of 94.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/13/nfib-small-business-survey-uncertainty-continues-to-drag-down-optimism

 

                        International

 

April Japanese PPI was +0.2%, in line; April German CPI was +0.5%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Momentum in core GDP.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/05/momentum-in-core-gdp

 

                          NY Fed Q1 household debt report.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/ny-fed-q1-report-change-in-household.html

 

                Overnight News

 

Trade talks between India and the US are progressing smoothly, with the first tranche of a deal expected by fall, according to people familiar with the discussions. However, it’s unclear if India can secure an interim deal by early July, when Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are expected to kick in.

 

White House economic adviser Hassett said the administration has more than 20-25 deals on the table with deals close to being finalized and when President Trump returns, he will announce the next deal, according to a Fox interview.

 

US-China trade ceasefire is to drive early Black Friday and Christmas stockpiling with ports and shipping companies expecting a surge in demand as retailers take advantage of lower tariffs on Chinese imports, according to the FT.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A little humility wouldn’t hurt.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-on-the-road-again/?src=news

 

              Has DOGE been a failure?

              https://reason.com/2025/05/12/why-doge-failed/

 

              The Big, Beautiful (budget) Bill is big but hardly beautiful.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-will-continue-spending-at-bidens-level/

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation fears cool in tariff climb down.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-inflation-fears-cool-on-tariff-climbdown-and-softer-services?post=497312

 

            Tariffs

 

              A tale of two trade deals.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/tale-two-trade-deals

 

    Investing

 

            Q1 earnings scoreboard to date.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/05/13/better-expected-q1-earnings-season-wraps-retailers

 

            The day after.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-china-trade-deal-lifts-markets-but-us-stocks-still-trail/

 

            The trouble with not correctly defining your time horizon.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/05/13/trouble-on-the-horizon/

 

            As long as Trump is the pres, be careful what you forecast.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-drops-recession-call-after-stocks-surge-goldman-raises-gdp-outlook-and-hikes-sp

 

     Investor Alert

 

The stock price on United Healthcare (UNH) has traded into its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, the Dividend Growth Portfolio will initiate a one half position at the market open.

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Adam Smith on mercantilism.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/05/adam-smith-on-mercantilism.html

 

 

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