Tuesday, May 6, 2025

The Morning Call---What recession?

 

The Morning Call

 

5/6/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-gains-crude-crushed-stocks-big-win-streak-ends

 

            Monday in the stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            Bulls building a foundation.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/bulls-build-a-foundation?post=495927

 

            A word of caution on the recent volatility.

            https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/05/12-sigma-event/

 

            Goldman trader says time to add hedges.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/earnings-better-feared-top-goldman-trader-suggests-its-time-add-hedges

 

            Gold: like a cork in water.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-cork-water

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March trade balance was -$140.5 billion versus predictions of -$137.0 billion.

 

The final April services PMI was 50.8 versus consensus of 51.4; the final April composite PMI was 50.6 versus 51.2.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/05/sp-global-services-pmi-april-2025

 

The April ISM services index was 51.6 versus projections of 50.6.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/05/ism-services-pmi-april-2025

 

                                     Tipping into a recession.

                                     https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/eveonomically-weighted-ism-averages.html

 

                        International

 

                          March EU PPI was 1.6%, in line.

 

                          April YoY UK new car sales fell 10.4% versus estimates of +3.5%.

 

The final April Chinese services PMI was 50.7 versus expectations of 51.7; the final April composite PMI was 51.1 versus 50.5; the final April German services PMI was 49.0 versus 48.8; the final April composite PMI was 50.1 versus 49.7; the final April EU services PMI was 50.1 versus 49.7; the final April composite PMI was 50.4 versus 50.1; the final April UK services PMI was 49.0 versus 48.9; the final April composite PMI was 48.5 versus 48.2.

 

                        Other

 

                          RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/05/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Economic concerns are mounting but the Fed isn’t ready to cut yet.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/business/fed-interest-rates-economy.html

 

              Fed to keep rates steady.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-set-to-keep-rates-steady-despite-pressure-from-trump/#more-23960

 

            Fiscal {policy

 

              Trump’s budget barely trims spending.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/05/03/despite-what-youve-heard-trumps-budget-doesnt-slash-sending-it-barely-trims-it/

 

              Nixon’s plan to cheapen the dollar did not end well. Will Trump’s?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/currenciesforex/weekly-market-pulse-deja-vu-all-over-again?post=495933

 

              Trump gets a game changing legal victory.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-just-got-game-changing-legal-victory

 

            Inflation

 

              Stagflation coming.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/stagflation-coming/

 

            Recession

 

              Recession watch metrics.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/recession-watch-metrics.html

 

              What recession?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-recession-goldman-now-expects-q2-gdp-surge-24

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs start filling government coffers.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/02/tariffs-start-washing-into-the-government-checking-account/

 

     Investing

 

            Portfolio elephants

            Portfolio Elephants - The Credit Strategist

 

            Avoiding losing investment strategies.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/05/05/awards-never-investing

 

            Be like you.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/05/be-like-you/

 

            Twenty years of higher interest rates ahead?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/25-years-higher-interest-rates-ahead

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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