The Morning Call
5/6/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-gains-crude-crushed-stocks-big-win-streak-ends
Monday in the stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map
Bulls building a
foundation.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/bulls-build-a-foundation?post=495927
A word of caution
on the recent volatility.
https://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2025/05/12-sigma-event/
Goldman trader
says time to add hedges.
Gold: like a cork
in water.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-cork-water
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The March trade
balance was -$140.5 billion versus predictions of -$137.0 billion.
The final April
services PMI was 50.8 versus consensus of 51.4; the final April composite PMI was
50.6 versus 51.2.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/05/sp-global-services-pmi-april-2025
The April ISM
services index was 51.6 versus projections of 50.6.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/05/ism-services-pmi-april-2025
Tipping into a
recession.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/eveonomically-weighted-ism-averages.html
International
March EU PPI was 1.6%, in line.
April YoY UK new car sales fell 10.4% versus
estimates of +3.5%.
The final April
Chinese services PMI was 50.7 versus expectations of 51.7; the final April composite
PMI was 51.1 versus 50.5; the final April German services PMI was 49.0 versus
48.8; the final April composite PMI was 50.1 versus 49.7; the final April EU
services PMI was 50.1 versus 49.7; the final April composite PMI was 50.4
versus 50.1; the final April UK services PMI was 49.0 versus 48.9; the final
April composite PMI was 48.5 versus 48.2.
Other
RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.
Monetary
Policy
Economic concerns are mounting but the Fed isn’t
ready to cut yet.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/business/fed-interest-rates-economy.html
Fed to keep rates steady.
Fiscal
{policy
Trump’s budget barely trims spending.
Nixon’s plan to cheapen the dollar did not end
well. Will Trump’s?
Trump gets a game changing legal victory.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-just-got-game-changing-legal-victory
Inflation
Stagflation coming.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/stagflation-coming/
Recession
Recession watch metrics.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/recession-watch-metrics.html
What recession?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-recession-goldman-now-expects-q2-gdp-surge-24
Tariffs
Tariffs start filling government coffers.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/02/tariffs-start-washing-into-the-government-checking-account/
Investing
Portfolio
elephants
Portfolio
Elephants - The Credit Strategist
Avoiding losing
investment strategies.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/05/05/awards-never-investing
Be like you.
https://ritholtz.com/2025/05/be-like-you/
Twenty years of
higher interest rates ahead?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/25-years-higher-interest-rates-ahead
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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