The Morning Call---What fiscal policy has wrought

 

The Morning Call

 

5/21/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-platinum-jump-tech-dumps-japanic-jolts-bonds

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-trading-desk-only-three-things-matter-ctas-buyback-and-retail-buying

 

            Hedge funds massively shorting NASDAQ.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/smart-money-hedge-funds-are-massively-shorting-record-nasdaq-rebound

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 5.1% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

The April Japanese trade balance was -Y115.8 billion versus estimates of +Y227.1 billion.

 

The April UK CPI was up 1.2% versus predictions of up 1.1%; core CPI was +1.4% versus +1.2%.

 

May EU flash consumer confidence came in at -15.2 versus consensus of -16.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on Q2 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q2-gdp-still-looks-set-to-rebound-after-q1-decline/

 

                          YoY lumber prices up 13%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/update-lumber-prices-up-13-yoy.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              What current fiscal policy wrought.

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/the-eternal-quarter

 

              Scoring the Big Beautiful Bill.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/big-beautiful-bill-will-massively-increase-near-term-deficits-add-5-trillilon-debt

 

              Bond buyers are getting nervous.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/05/19/bond-market-us-debt

 

              Death by a thousand cuts.

              https://fortune.com/2025/05/20/us-economy-experiencing-death-by-thousand-cuts-deutsche-bank/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs aren’t the only threat to trade.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/new-shipping-fees-requirements-pose-fresh-threat-us-economy

 

              How tariffs help China

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/china-fills-the-u-s-void-in-the-americas-tariffs-protectionism-trade-deals-debt-453d9f80?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

           

              To date still few effects of Trump tariffs.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/have-any-impacts-from-tariff-palooza-shown-up-in-hard-data-yet?post=498568

 

              Confusion in tariff land.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/hoot-of-the-day-trump-threatens-a-return-to-reciprocal-tariffs/

 

      Investing

 

            Update on S&P earnings estimates.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/spring-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future.html

           

            They are not going down anymore but there is still confusion.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/s-and-p-500s-earnings-momentum-brightens-as-tariff-induced-plunge-runs-out/

 

            Citi sees weaker dollar.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/citi-sees-weaker-dollar-after-g-7-meeting-as-us-softens-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.77/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The truth about success.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-truth-about-trading-success.html

 

 

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