Wednesday, May 7, 2025

The Morning Call---Progress on trade negotiations, at last

 

The Morning Call

 

5/7/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-bonds-black-gold-bid-bessent-bats-down-beijing-trade-deal-bets

 

            Tuesday in the Market stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            The three gap play.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/three-gap-play?post=496128

 

            Risk appetite remains weak.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-appetite-remains-weak-as-trade-tensions-remain-high/

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/moving-neutral-bullish-goldman-trader-who-bottom-ticked-selloff-says-its-time-take-profits

 

            An elevated VIX doesn’t mean the stock prices are going lower.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-06/the-stock-market-s-fear-gauge-is-misunderstood?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Bitcoin volatility looks too cheap to ignore. (I bought a trading position in bitcoin at the close yesterday)

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-volatility-looks-too-cheap-ignore

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

                          Both weekly mortgage and purchase applications were up 11%.   

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/consumers-continue-to-front-run-tariffs.html

 

                        International

 

                          March German factory orders rose 3.6% versus forecasts of +1.3%.

 

                          March EU retail sales fell 0.1% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

The final April Japanese services PMI was 52.4 versus consensus of 52.2; the final April composite PMI was 51.2 versus 51.1.

 

The April EU construction PMI was 46.0 versus predictions of 45.1; the April German construction PMI was 45.1 versus 42.0; the April UK construction PMI was 46.1 versus 45.7.

 

                        Other

 

            Overnight News

 

The UK and the US are close to agreeing a trade pact that would cushion the impact of Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs by granting lower-tariff quotas for British car and steel exports, according to officials in London and Washington.

 

Mexico's agricultural minister said he met with US counterpart Rollins and reached agreements that will be beneficial to both countries.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed’s lose/lose dilemma.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-meeting-interest-rates-powell-trump-bd21e33f?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Congress fiddles while the economy starts to burn.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/05/05/republican-lawmakers-fiddle-as-economy-starts-to-burn/

 

            Recession

 

              Update on recession odds.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/us-gdp-contracts-as-recession-odds-tick.html

 

              Another and with roughly the same results.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/05/plain-vanilla-12-month-ahead-recession-predictions

 

            Inflation

 

              The NY Fed’s indicator points to rising inflation.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/05/ny-feds-multivariate-core-trend-inflation-measure-hits-3-0-worst-in-over-a-year-predicts-acceleration-of-pce-price-index/

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              US/China to meet for trade talks.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-chinese-delegations-meet-switzerland-launch-trade-talks-sp-futures-surge

 

              EU proposes new tariffs on US goods.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eu-set-tariff-113-billion-us-goods-if-trade-talks-break-down

 

     Investing

 

            Adapting your portfolio to a higher interest rate environment.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/the-impact-of-rising-interest-rates-on-investments-and-how-to-adapt?post=496155

 

            What is gold trying to tell us?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/what-is-gold-trying-to-tell-us?post=496149

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            Seven science based rules for living longer.

            7 simple science-backed rules for living longer

 

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