The Morning Call
5/7/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday in the Market
stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map
The three gap
play.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/three-gap-play?post=496128
Risk appetite
remains weak.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-appetite-remains-weak-as-trade-tensions-remain-high/
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
An elevated VIX
doesn’t mean the stock prices are going lower.
Bitcoin
volatility looks too cheap to ignore. (I bought a trading position in bitcoin at
the close yesterday)
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-volatility-looks-too-cheap-ignore
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Both weekly mortgage and purchase applications
were up 11%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/consumers-continue-to-front-run-tariffs.html
International
March German factory orders rose 3.6% versus
forecasts of +1.3%.
March EU retail sales fell 0.1% versus expectations
of 0.0%.
The final April
Japanese services PMI was 52.4 versus consensus of 52.2; the final April composite
PMI was 51.2 versus 51.1.
The April EU construction
PMI was 46.0 versus predictions of 45.1; the April German construction PMI was
45.1 versus 42.0; the April UK construction PMI was 46.1 versus 45.7.
Other
Overnight
News
The UK and the US
are close to agreeing a trade pact that would cushion the impact of Trump’s
“liberation day” tariffs by granting lower-tariff quotas for British car and
steel exports, according to officials in London and Washington.
Mexico's agricultural minister said he met with US
counterpart Rollins and reached agreements that will be beneficial to both
countries.
Monetary
Policy
The
Fed’s lose/lose dilemma.
Fiscal
Policy
Congress fiddles while the economy starts to
burn.
https://issuesinsights.com/2025/05/05/republican-lawmakers-fiddle-as-economy-starts-to-burn/
Recession
Update
on recession odds.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/us-gdp-contracts-as-recession-odds-tick.html
Another and with roughly the same results.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/05/plain-vanilla-12-month-ahead-recession-predictions
Inflation
The
NY Fed’s indicator points to rising inflation.
Tariffs
US/China
to meet for trade talks.
EU proposes new tariffs on US goods.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eu-set-tariff-113-billion-us-goods-if-trade-talks-break-down
Investing
Adapting your
portfolio to a higher interest rate environment.
What is gold
trying to tell us?
https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/what-is-gold-trying-to-tell-us?post=496149
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Seven
science based rules for living longer.
7
simple science-backed rules for living longer
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