Thursday, May 8, 2025

The Morning Call---Positive news on the trade front

 

The Morning Call

 

5/8/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bitcoin-jump-china-hope-powell-nope-trump-rope-dope

 

            Wednesday in the Market stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            The 200 DMA (~5740) remains critical.

            https://www.investors.com/news/stock-market-bottom-2020-signals/

 

            Ditto.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/05/07/resistance-futile-bulls-bears

 

            Stocks on edge of chase higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/markets-edge-chase

 

            Stocks heading to new highs.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/powell--company-wrong-again--stocks-heading-to-new-highs?post=496370

 

            Market internals heating up.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/market-internals-heating-up-as-price-hits-resistance?post=496362

 

            US companies plan $500 billion in share buybacks.

            https://www.ft.com/content/8361835c-6955-4ee3-80a1-8e7e19127e6c

 

            The dollar is vulnerable to heavy selling from Asia.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/dollar-exodus-to-unleash-2-5-trillion-fx-avalanche-jen-says?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 228,000 versus estimates of 230,000.

 

Preliminary Q1 nonfarm productivity fell 0.8% versus expectations of -0.7%.

 

March consumer credit rose by $10.2 billion versus consensus of +$9.5 billion.

 

                        International

 

The March German trade balance was +E21.1 billion versus projections of +E19.1 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Latest Q2 nowcast---with caveats.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/rebound-for-initial-us-q2-gdp-nowcast-could-be-misleading/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              FOMC statement: no change, rates steady, portfolio runoff continues.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/fomc-statement-no-change-to-fed-funds.html

 

              Bank of England cuts rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/divided-decision-boe-cuts-rates-plays-down-tariff-fears-trump-trounces-fool-powell-no-fed

 

            Recession

 

              Another recession indicator.

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/05/05/three-things-recessions-more-tariffs-and-time/

 

              Update on key business cycle indicators.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/05/business-cycle-indicators-6-may-2025

 

            Tariffs

 

              US/UK trade deal to be announced this morning.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-reveal-major-trade-deal-between-us-uk

 

              China orders 14 Boeing jets.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/goodwill-gesture-trade-talks-china-airlines-places-order-14-boeing-777-jets

 

              Empty shelves by late May?

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/tariff-tension-will-us-shelves-be-empty-by-late-may/

 

              Impact to date of China tariffs.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/us-china-trade-drops-ahead-of-trumps.html

 

              The latest US port shipping data.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/wall-street-is-watching-port-shipping-data-to-assess-tariff-impact?post=496369

 

     Investing

 

            Update on Q1 earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q1-wednesday-may-7?post=496367

 

            Surviving the wrong turns in the Market.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/how-to-survive-the-wrong-turns-in-life-and-the-markets/

 

            The gold dilemma isn’t going away.

            https://abnormalreturns.com/2025/05/06/the-gold-dilemma-isnt-going-anywhere/

 

            Are investors ignoring the goals of Trump’s agenda?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/storm-calm

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS) declares $1.64/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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