Tuesday, May 13, 2025

The Morning Call--The 'no show' recession

 

The Morning Call

 

5/13/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/trump-total-reset-wrecks-recession-narrative-sends-nasdaq-bull-market

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

           

            Money flows never lie.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-money-flows-never-lie?post=497119

 

            Buyers abound and bears are retreating.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-now-buyers-every-scenario-buybacks-accelerate-and-bearish-funds-capitulate

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April budget surplus was $258 billion versus expectations of $255 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-treasury-shocks-second-biggest-budget-surplus-history-thanks-record-tariff-revenues

 

April CPI was up 0.2% versus consensus of +0.3%; core CPI was also up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

The March UK unemployment rate was 4.5%, in line; March (3month YoY) average earnings were up 5.5% versus +5.2%.

 

The May EU economic sentiment index was 11.6 versus predictions of -3.5; the May German economic sentiment index was 25.2 versus 11.9; the May German current conditions index was -82 versus -77.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest senior loan officers opinion survey.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/fed-april-sloos-survey-banks-reported.html

 

                          The latest measures of median wage growth.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/measures-of-median-wage-growth-show-why.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

           

              House releases proposed tax/budget bill.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-rallies-gop-back-big-beautiful-bill-house-races-toward-memorial-day-deadline

 

            Recession

 

              The ‘no show’ recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/it-crashing-recession-probabilities

 

            Tariffs

 

              The downside to shrinking our trade deficit.

              Tension in the Sandpile - Mauldin Economics - Commentaries - Advisor Perspectives

 

    Investing

 

            Earnings growth of large companies much better than smaller companies.

            https://www.ft.com/content/62ddcf7c-aa97-46d7-ba50-28952c0bbbb0

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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