The Morning Call
5/13/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map
Money flows never
lie.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-money-flows-never-lie?post=497119
Buyers abound and
bears are retreating.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The April budget
surplus was $258 billion versus expectations of $255 billion.
April CPI was up 0.2%
versus consensus of +0.3%; core CPI was also up 0.2% versus +0.3%.
International
The March UK
unemployment rate was 4.5%, in line; March (3month YoY) average earnings were
up 5.5% versus +5.2%.
The May EU economic
sentiment index was 11.6 versus predictions of -3.5; the May German economic
sentiment index was 25.2 versus 11.9; the May German current conditions index
was -82 versus -77.
Other
The latest senior loan officers opinion
survey.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/fed-april-sloos-survey-banks-reported.html
The latest measures of median wage growth.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/measures-of-median-wage-growth-show-why.html
Fiscal
Policy
House releases proposed tax/budget bill.
Recession
The ‘no show’ recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/it-crashing-recession-probabilities
Tariffs
The downside to shrinking our trade deficit.
Tension
in the Sandpile - Mauldin Economics - Commentaries - Advisor Perspectives
Investing
Earnings growth of
large companies much better than smaller companies.
https://www.ft.com/content/62ddcf7c-aa97-46d7-ba50-28952c0bbbb0
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