The Morning Call---Retail investors 'buying the dip'

 

The Morning Call

 

5/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/traders-buy-bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bullion-moodys-confirms-trump-right

 

                Monday in the tech stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            You can’t keep a good market down.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cant-keep-good-market-down-trades-cork-feels-trap

 

            Retail investors the major force in ‘buying the dip’.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/11-sigma-move-record-retail-investor-dip-buying-rescued-stocks-yesterday

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April leading economic indicators were down 1.0% versus forecasts of -0.9%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-leading-economic-indicators-tumble-most-over-2-years

 

                        International

 

March YoY EU construction output fell 1.1% versus expectations of +1.1%.

 

April German PPI declined 0.9% versus estimates of -0.6%.

 

                        Other

 

                          LA port import traffic up YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/la-ports-april-inbound-traffic-up-yoy.html

 

            Overnight News

  Freedom caucus chair Harris said the votes are not there for the Trump bill and    predicts a deal on the tax bill will be delayed until June.

 

  Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine will “immediately” begin negotiations on preparations for peace talks but signaled that he was leaving Moscow and Kyiv to find a deal without the US as a broker.

 

Crypto scored a big win after a group of Democrats dropped their opposition to stablecoin legislation. The bill may pass this week.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Japanese bond market on verge of collapse.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japan-bond-market-verge-collapse-after-worst-auction-1987

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              On the bright side.

              https://dailycaller.com/2025/05/15/opinion-trump-is-laying-the-groundwork-for-americas-future-james-carter/

 

              On the other hand.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/19/business/stock-markets-moodys-sp500.html

 

              There is no free lunch.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/weekly-market-pulse-no-free-lunches?post=498344

 

            Inflation

 

              Here is another optimistic analysis---this one on inflation.

              https://investorplace.com/market360/2025/05/why-aprils-inflation-data-proves-the-fed-is-chasing-ghosts/

 

              More good news.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/05/18/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-april-2025-the-price-drops-gains-in-33-of-the-largest-housing-markets/

 

            Recession

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/19/the-big-four-recession-indicators

 

              Bank lending trending towards recession.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/in-q1-bank-conditions-for-loans-appear.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Apparently, it was Upbeat Monday.

              https://nypost.com/2025/05/17/opinion/china-blinked-and-trump-won-the-first-round-of-his-tariff-war/

           

  Counterpoint.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/economics--politics/90-trade-deals-in-90-days-a-midpoint-update-where-are-we?post=498358

 

              Let them eat tariffs---good luck with that Donald.

              Let Them Eat Tariffs!

 

This is an interesting theory on the changing geopolitical reality and how Trump’s foreign/tariff policies fit the new reality.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/05/19/how-we-got-here

 

     Investing

 

            Veteran investors sees risk of full blown bear market.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-veteran-investor-crunches-the-numbers-and-sees-the-risk-of-a-full-blown-bear-market-e3c42df8

 

            The stock market remains undefeated.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/05/undefeated/

 

            Goldman reiterates ‘long gold’ recommendation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-reiterates-its-long-gold-recc-amid-price-dip-targets-4000-mid-2026

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How to live miserable life.

            https://www.sahilbloom.com/newsletter/how-to-live-a-miserable-life?utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.