The Morning Call
5/15/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the tech stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map
There are still
stock bears to throw in the towel.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-are-still-stock-bears-left-throw-towel
The latest from
Goldman.
Gold’s brutal
fall.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-slips-below-key-trend-lines-eyes-3150-level
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 229,000,
in line.
April PPI came in
at -0.5% versus consensus of +0.2%, ex food and energy it was -0.1% versus
+0.1%.
April retail sales
rose 0.1% versus projections of 0.0%; ex auto, they were up 0.1% versus +0.3%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-retail-sales-surprises-upside
The May NY Fed manufacturing
index was -9.2 versus estimates of -10.0; the May Philadelphia Fed
manufacturing index was -4 versus -11.
International
Q1 EU employment change
was +0.3% versus predictions of +0.1%; Q1 (2nd estimate) GDP grew
+0.3% versus +0.4%; March industrial production was up 2.6% versus +1.8%.
Q1 UK GDP increased
0.7% versus forecasts of +0.6%; the March trade balance was -L3.7 billion versus
+L2.7 billion; March industrial production was up 2.6% versus +1.8%; March YoY construction
output rose 1.4% versus +1.2%.
April German PPI
was down 0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.
April Japanese YoY
machine tool orders increased 7.7% versus consensus of +11.7%.
Other
Thoughts from
Cullen Roche. While reading this piece, I
found it interesting that the note on higher tariffs was followed by one on the
shrinking deficit. It occurred to me
that one of my biggest economic concerns is our budget deficit and the morons
in congress have a congenital inability to lower spending/increase taxes to alleviate
the problem. Yet Trump just raised taxes unilaterally via tariffs. Granted it is a regressive tax. And he may never have considered tariffs as a
primary way to shrink the deficit versus righting some economic wrongdoing by
our trading partners. So, this may be occurring by happenstance. But the result is the same---shrinking our
deficit---which is lot more important to me than correcting any (imaginary) current
trading inequities. Except for China. Bottom line: if this is a way (barring fiscal
responsibility by congress) to have an immediate impact on deficit spending
then perhaps my opposition to tariffs shouldn’t be quite so vociferous.
https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/05/12/three-things-this-is-a-big-deal/
On the other hand, there are still numerous negative
side effects.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/it-takes-time-to-rebuild-trust/
A deep dive into the consumer debt.
April real wages were up.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/05/average-and-aggregate-nonsupervisory.html
Monetary
Policy
The Fed is wrong.
Fiscal
Policy
Draining the swamp---not.
https://www.nationalreview.com/carnival-of-fools/welcome-to-the-swamp-now-under-new-management/
Part two.
The fight over state and local tax deductions.
Inflation
Looking good.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/05/april-cpi-looking-good.html
But is it as good as it is going to get?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-year-over-year-cpi-is-likely-headed-higher-for-several-months/
Another deep dive; this one into CPI.
Tariffs
This is a prime
example of why I make China the exception in Trump’s trade policies.
Investing
A word of caution
from Goldman’s strategist.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
A
few questions.
https://collabfund.com/blog/a-few-questions-1/
You can drink your weed now.
A short biography of Cyrus the
Great.
Was
Cyrus the Great really a tolerant conqueror?
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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