The Morning Call---Hedge funds piling into risk off bets

 

The Morning Call

 

5/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-flat-mystery-buyer-emerges-bonds-after-budget-busting-bill-passes-bitcoin-tags

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-shocking-admission-only-offramp-break-treasury-stock-reflexive-selling-loop-means

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          April building permits declined 4.0% versus expectations of -4.7%.

 

                          April existing home sales fell 0.5% versus forecasts of +0.7%.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/existing-homes-sales-drop-0-5-percent-in-may-but-supply-soars/

 

The May Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -10 versus projections of -1.

 

The May flash manufacturing PMI was 52.3 versus estimates of 50.1; the May flash services PMI was 52.3 versus 50.8; the May flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 50.4.

 

                        International

 

                          Final Q1 German GDP growth was +0.4% versus predictions of +0.2%.

 

April UK retail sales rose 1.2% versus consensus of +0.2%; the May consumer confidence index was -20 versus -22.

 

April Japanese CPI was +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

 

                        Other

 

            Overnight News

 

              Futures plunge on Trump tariff threats.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-plunge-after-trump-threatens-25-tariff-apple-50-europe-bonds-bullion-bid

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Trump tariff/tax policies losing war with the bond market. Bear in mind that the author of this piece is a liberal. So the tone is clearly anti-Trump. Unfortunately, much of her analysis is correct.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/05/ideology-driven-inflationary-trump-tax-and-tariff-policies-losing-war-with-bond-and-currency-markets.html

 

              The bond market warns Trump/congress of the dangers of the rising deficit.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-21/treasury-yields-climb-auguring-5-rate-for-20-year-bond-auction?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              A more positive take on the outlook for interest rates/bond prices.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/time-add-duration

             

            Recession

 

              A significant headwind to consumer spending.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/significant-headwinds-to-consumer-spending/

 

              Unsustainable interest rates.

              https://dollarcollapse.com/john-rubino-recession-watch-unsustainable-interest-rates/

 

     Investing

 

            Upending asset allocations.

            https://www.wellington.com/en-us/institutional/insights/the-dollar-smile-theory

 

            Are we at a sovereign trust checkpoint?

            https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/05/bond_market_shock_is_a_new_financial_crisis_looming.html

 

            Why the Japanese bond market is imploding.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-japanese-bond-market-imploding-goldman-explains

 

            Political CEOs hurt stock prices.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/political-ceos-hurt-stock-prices.html

           

            Chinese gold imports surge.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/chinese-gold-imports-surge-as-demand-continues-to-grow?post=499028

 

            Hedge funds piling into risk off bets.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/macro-hedge-funds-have-piled-big-risk-bets

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declared $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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