The Morning Call---The Big, Beautiful Bill needs a makeover

 

The Morning Call

 

5/16/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/soft-data-jump-inflation-slump-sparks-buy-all-things-day

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

 

            Sentiment whiplash.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/panic-fomo-wall-streets-sentiment-whiplash

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-hated-market-meltup-over-jpmorgan-trading-desk-answers

 

            Goldman buying gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/10-reasons-why-goldmans-trading-desk-quietly-buying-gold

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

April housing starts were up 1.6% versus projections of down 1.0%; preliminarily, building permits fell 4.7% versus -1.2%.

 

April industrial production was flat with March versus estimates of +0.2%; capacity utilization was 77.7% versus 77.8%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/15/recession-indicators-industrial-production-april-2025

 

The May housing index was 34 versus predictions of 40.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/05/15/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-may-2025

 

                        International

 

Preliminary Q1 Japanese GDP growth was -0.2% versus consensus of -0.1%; preliminary Q1 capital expenditures were up 1.4% versus +0.8%; preliminary Q1 private consumption was flat versus +0.1%; the preliminary Q1 YoY price index was up 3.3% versus +3.2%; March industrial production was up 0.2% versus -1.1%; capacity utilization fell 2.4% versus +0.3%.

 

The March EU trade balance was E36.8 billion versus expectations of E25.0 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              M2 looks good.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/05/m2-charts-look-good.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Massive defense spending occurs by design.

https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2025/05/13/unbridled_how_massive_pentagon_spending_happens_by_design_1109707.html?mc_cid=c124b53498&mc_eid=0622ebfa37

 

              The Big, Beautiful Bill needs a makeover.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/republicans-one-big-beautiful-tax-bill-needs-makeover

 

              Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/trump-s-tax-cut-draft-masks-the-true-giant-threat-to-us-debt?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              GOP is just as adept as budget accounting chicanery as the dems.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/trump-s-tax-cut-draft-masks-the-true-giant-threat-to-us-debt?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Changing the rules to fit reality.

              https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2025/05/15/when-conservative-theory-collides-with-unconservative-reality-n2657004

 

              A closer look at the Saudi arms deal.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/05/trump-smoke-and-mirrors-on-full-display-in-claimed-142-billion-saudi-arms-deal.html

 

     Investing

 

            Parallels between 2000 and 2025.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-2025-2000-heres-how-year-unfolds

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $1.02/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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