The Morning Call--The dollar---a generational change?

 

The Morning Call

 

4/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-rally-soft-data-slumps-trumps-first-100-days-worst-nixon

 

            Sell in June and go away.

            https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1917211015969677603

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 4.2% while purchase applications were down 4.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.

 

The February Case Shiller home price index was up 4.5% versus consensus of +4.7%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-home-price-index-february-2025

 

March job openings (JOLTS report) totaled 7.19 million versus predictions of 7.48 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/jolts-report-job-openings-march-2025

 

Q1 preliminary GDP growth was -0.3% versus estimates of +0.3%; the Q1 preliminary price index was +3.7% versus +3.1%; Q1 real consumer spending was up 1.8% versus +2.2%

 

The April ADP private payrolls reported showed job increases of 62,000 versus expectations of 115,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-reports-weakest-job-growth-july-2024-wage-growth-re-accelerates

 

The April consumer confidence index came in at 86.0 versus forecasts of 87.5.               

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/consumer-confidence-plunges-five-year-low-april-2025

 

 

                        International

 

The February Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 107.9, in line; March preliminary industrial production was down 1.1% versus -0.4%; March retail sales were down 1.2% versus -0.2%; March YoY housing starts were up 39.1% versus +1.0%; March YoY construction orders were up 3.5% versus -9.0%.

 

March German retail sales were down 0.2% versus projections of -0.4%; Q1 flash GDP growth was +0.2% in line; the April unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line.

 

Q1 flash EU GDP growth was +0.4% versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

           

                          New record trade goods deficit reflects more tariff front running.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/new-record-goods-trade-deficit-on-more-tariff-front-running?post=495090

 

                          Big problems for Dr. Copper.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/greatest-tightening-shock-market-has-ever-seen-chinese-copper-stocks-run-out-weeks

 

            Recession

 

              A timeline for recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/a-timeline-for-recession

 

              Converging forces point to recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/28/quarterly-review-outlook

 

            Inflation

 

              The Campbell’s tomato soup indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-holding.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              How China steals.

              https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/04/how_china_steals.html

 

              Lutnick rolls out auto tariff relief.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-moves-ease-automaker-pain-tariff-relief-foreign-parts

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Canada’s Carney prepares to take on Trump.

              https://www.ft.com/content/b4d4e25e-24b3-475a-b127-5ca7ddcdc68c

 

    Investing

 

            Optimism on stocks is only skin deep.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/optimism-stocks-only-skin-deep

 

            The dollar: a generational change?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-generational-change/?src=news

 

            Update on Q1 earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q1-tuesday-april-29?post=495089

 

            Whales are again accumulating bitcoin.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/whales-are-accumulating-again-stanchart-expects-fresh-bitcoin-all-time-high-q2

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Are you a mosquito magnet?

            You really are a mosquito magnet. Here’s what you can do about it.

 

 

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The Morning Call--The macro turns darker than the markets

 

The Morning Call

 

4/29/25

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-pop-bessent-bad-data-beijing-batter-crude-crypto-stocks

 

            Record stock repurchases on deck.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buyback-blackout-period-ends-record-stock-repurchases-deck

 

            The latest form JP Morgan’s trading desk.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/technical-nature-not-fundamental-jpmorgan-trading-desk-turn-tactically-bullish

 

            Bounce back too violent to retore confidence.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bounce-back-too-violent-restore-confidence

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -35.8 versus estimates of -15.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/28/dallas-fed-manufacturing-conditions-worsen-to-5-year-low

 

                          Here is a summary of all the Fed regional banks stats.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/regional-fed-manufacturing-indexes.html

 

                        International

 

The April EU economic sentiment index was 93.6 versus expectations of 94.5; the April industrial sentiment index was -11.2 versus -10.1; the April services sentiment index was 1.4 versus 2.2; the April consumer confidence index was -16.7, in line; the May German consumer confidence index was -20.6 versus -26.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The macro turns darker than the markets.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/when-macro-turns-darker-markets

 

                          More Q1 nowcasts.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/more-nowcasts

 

                          Home ownership rate falls to a five-year low.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/28/home-ownership-rate-q1-2025

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Killing the regulatory beast.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/04/25/can-trump-kill-this-2-2-trillion-regulatory-beast/

 

              Treasury reports a decline in borrowing needs.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-treasury-unexpectedly-reports-sharp-drop-debt-borrowing-needs-rates-slilde

 

              Without a change in congress, DOGE efforts will be fruitless.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/david-sacks-warns-doge-will-all-be-nothing-unless

 

            Tariffs

 

              The constitutionality of Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-tariffs-erode-the-constitutional-order-law-policy-trade-d985581b?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

 

              Clarifying the convoluted.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/28/tariffs_and_inflation_clarifying_the_convoluted_1106478.html

 

              CEO’s fear Trump’s lack of success.

              https://nypost.com/2025/04/25/business/ceos-stay-mum-but-quietly-fear-trump-wont-pull-off-art-of-the-deal-in-trade-war/

 

              Tariff induced paralysis (recession?).

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/28/paralysis-tariff-induced

 

              On a more positive note.

              https://www.barchart.com/story/news/32086148/482-trillion-in-us-investments-now-announced-since-start-of-trumps-presidency-451000-new-jobs-expected

 

 

                        Geopolitics

 

              They lied about Iraq, WMD’s and Ukraine.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/they-lied-us-about-iraqs-wmds-theyve-taken-it-another-level-ukraine-hitchens

 

     Investing

 

            A word of caution from Barry Ritholtz.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/04/an-amazing-15-years/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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Monday Morning Chartology

 

The Morning Call

 

4/28/25

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Finally, a decent week of technical action for a change. The S&P was up (1) made its first higher low [hopefully confirming April 7^th as The low] and (2) broke above both the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the downtrend off its February 19 high. If it remains there through the close on Tuesday those breaks will be confirmed. On the other hand, (1) in the process, it created a large gap up open which will need to be filled and (2) it remains below all DMAs.  All in all a ray of hope that the worst is over. If we get some follow through to the upside, then I will likely put some money to work on the next pullback. I did add to my Nike position at the close on Friday.

 

The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-gs-trader-we-just-saw-market-action-signals-upside-tipping-point-we-still-need-3-things

 

 

 

 

The long bond made some additional progress in its bounce off the lower boundary of its short term trading range. ‘Some progress’ being the operative words. It can certainly be argued that the bounce represented a successful test of the January 14^th low. In light of the better performance from the S&P, I am taking it as such but the obstacles they both have to overcome, i.e., tariff chaos, inflation fears, declining dollar are more impactful on TLT than the S&P. So I am less confident in any recovery.

 

 

 

 

 

 

GLD was off for the week. But it was so stretched to the upside that some correction was inevitable.  So I don’t think a down week is anything to get nervous about. It remains well within a very short term uptrend and in uptrends across all other time frames as well as above all DMAs. Let’s see where the correction goes but for the moment, I would stay with what works.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/case-tactical-gold-pullback-nomura

 

 

 

The dollar was up with everything else; although its rally was even less impressive than that of the long bond. The good news is that Trump’s attempt to oust Powell is off the table. Unfortunately, with the rest of the world pissed off at Trump over the tariff chaos, I’m not sure pressure won’t continue on the dollar. And remember, if Trump were to get his way and our trade deficit shrunk, that would be bad news for the dollar. So, I am having a tough time seeing any reason for a longer term recovery in the dollar.

 

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/deal-or-no-deal-stocks-bonds-bitcoin-bid-week-world-questions-us-china-talks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

Last week, the stats were tilted to the negative side, including the primary indicators (two up, three down). So another (second in a row) week of downbeat data---though not enough to signal recession---but enough to suggest ‘muddle through’.

 

The big news of the week was the Trump Blink: (1) backing off the threat to fire Powell and (2) moving to defuse his China standoff.

 

As to the latter, we now know for sure that there is a Trump Put and roughly at what level it exists. That is almost certainly a positive short term. Longer term, he could have saved everyone a lot of grief if he hadn’t insisted on pursuing a hard guy, ‘art of the deal’ strategy and just focused on the specific areas of inequity. We can only hope that maybe, just maybe, some good will come of his (to date) inexplicably illogical tariff policy meanderings.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5210267

 

World finance ministers are dazed and confused.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-25/trump-s-tariffs-world-s-finance-ministers-and-central-banks-are-dazed?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

To be sure, I don’t fault the Donald for working to right some trade imbalances. But so far, I would judge the ‘art of the deal’ to be a f**king disaster; and unfortunately, likely a longer term negative (1) for our relations with our allies and (2) in his ability to implement his domestic agenda [which I believe would be a major plus for the economy].

https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/the-calm-before-the-crack-tariff-fallout-enters-the-real-economy-phase?post=493435

 

Bottom line. Short term, the odds of recession have likely decreased, but longer term though Trump’s self-induced chaos will only hamper economic growth. Nonetheless, I am reinstating my ‘muddle through’ forecast. I am less sure about inflation and I am leaving that prediction in abeyance pending more clarity.

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

                       

                          Consumer sentiment falls for fourth straight month.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/25/consumer-sentiment-falls-for-fourth-straight-month-as-inflation-expectations-soar

 

                        Overnight News

 

  US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he had interaction with his Chinese   counterpart in Washington last week and thinks the Chinese will see the tariff level as unsustainable and he also thinks there is a path to an agreement with China on tariffs, according to ABC News. It was separately reported that Bessent had met with Japanese Finance Minister Kato on Thursday and held productive discussions across a broad range of bilateral issues including reciprocal trade, while he was said to be encouraged by discussions with South Korean officials that focused on an ‘expanded equilibrium’ which encourages rather than restricts trade.

 

China has reportedly quietly exempted some US-made products from tariffs with Beijing said to have been canvassing companies and waiving duties on US goods in sectors where there is a lack of alternatives, according to WSJ.

 

Fox’s Gasparino posted on X that the Trump Administration would like to roll out trade deals this week, at least the outlines that have been agreed upon, citing sources close to the matter.” However, he also noted there are a lot of moving targets that could delay matters, while the deals on deck include India, Japan and maybe South Korea and Australia, although the White House spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment.

           

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Red light blinking in US Treasuries market.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/red-warning-light-blinking-in-us-treasury-market?post=494474

 

      Investing

 

            Update on Q1 earnings dashboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q1-friday-april-25?post=494473

 

            Your memories can deceive you.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-mistake-youre-making-in-todays-stock-marketwithout-even-knowing-it-8549894e?st=SDgx2k

 

            The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sell-rips-hartnett-says-3bs-saved-market-now-its-all-3cs

 

            Ten rules from legendary investors.

            Speculator Or Investor? 10-Rules From Legendary Investors - RIA

 

            The logic based approach to volatility.

            Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility - RIA

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

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