The Morning Call---New era, new bubbles

 

The Morning Call

 

12/12/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/sell-bonds-buy-everything-else-rate-cut-hopes-soar-markets-shrug-hot-flation

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 242,000 versus expectations of 220,000.

 

The November budget deficit was $367 billion versus forecasts of $353 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/government-spending-shock-us-budget-deficit-worst-start-year-record

 

November PPI came in at +0.4% versus projections of +0.2%; core PPI was up 0.2%, in line.

 

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Further analysis of yesterday’s CPI number.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02.html

 

                          And:

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/yoy-measures-of-inflation-services.html

 

                          And still more:

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/november-consumer-inflation-remains.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              December rate cut odds at 85%.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/fed-rate-cut-odds-in-december-are-85-8-percent-despite-cpi-estimates/

 

            Tariffs

 

              China prepares for a trade war.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/xi-readies-bargaining-chips-for-us-trade-war-after-biden-curbs

 

              Including currency devaluation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-considering-yuan-devaluation-response-trump-tariffs

 

              But it could backfire.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/backfire-weaker-yuan-signal-could-mean-more-beijing-bargained

 

     Investing

 

            What is driving this market higher?

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/5-factors-that-drove-markets-record-highs-2024

 

            Nobody knows anything.

            https://rupakghose.substack.com/p/nobody-knows-anything

 

            New eras, same bubbles.

            https://www.ft.com/content/abec3526-32ae-493e-bf59-2d30ccb4e50f

 

            Counterpoint.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/now-the-bears-are-apologizing/

 

            What bears should fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/what-bears-should-fear

 

            The strategic bitcoin reserve.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/12/10/three-things-i-think-i-think-strategic-reserves-and-stuff/

 

            Who is left to buy bitcoin?

            https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/nike-signs-michael-saylor-microstrategy-to-a-bitcoin-just-do-it-campaign

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Altria (NYSE:MO) declared $1.02/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The story of Paul the Apostle.

            Christianity struggled to grow—until this skeptic became a believer

 

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