The Morning Call
12/20/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P pushed
back above its 50 DMA intraday but failed to hold that level---closing down on
the day. That resets the 50 DMA to resistance and opens the door for challenges
of its 100 DMA and the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.
Fragile markets haunted
by VIX, liquidity and leverage.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fragile-markets-haunted-vix-leverage-and-liquidity
Equities at make
or break levels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/equities-make-or-break-levels-stress-surges
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
November existing home sales rose 4.8% versus forecasts
of +1.0%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-to.html
The November leading
economic indicators were up 0.3% versus projections of -0.1%.
November personal income
rose 0.3% versus consensus of up 0.4%; November personal spending was up 0.4%
versus 0.5%.
November PCE YoY price
index was up 2.4% versus expectations of +2.5%; the core PCE price index was up
2.8%, in line.
The December Kansas
City Fed manufacturing index was reported at -5 versus estimates of +4.
International
The November
Japanese YoY CPI was up 2.9% versus predictions of +2.5%; YoY core CPI was up
2.7% versus +2.6%.
The November
German PPI was up 0.5% versus forecasts of +0.3%.
November UK YoY
vehicle production dropped 30% versus projections of down 12%; November retail
sales were up 0.2% versus +0.5%; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus 0.0%.
Other
Inconsistencies in the reported data.
Monetary
Policy
A deeper dive into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting
results.
Did the Fed just
make another mistake? Historically, that wouldn’t be atypical. These guys always
seem to find a way to screw up a wet dream. But that is not why I am linking to
this article. The reason is that part of its thesis is that the Fed mistakenly made
its decisions using (deliberately) faulty data produced by the current administration. I am not making a judgment on that
notion---though the cynic in me wouldn’t be surprised. But rather my point is
to posit just how much more confusing than normal (which is itself is always
open to debate) the data and its interpretation are at the moment---and hence
the risking of Your Money on a particular economic scenario.
Fiscal
Policy
Will spendthrift republicans really embrace
DOGE?
Apparently not.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/johnson-meets-trump-team-throw-federal-funding-hail-mary
A tsunami of executive orders.
Inflation
Market now focused on reflation risk.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-focus-on-reflation-risk-after-fed-cuts-rates/#more-23284
Investing
This author has the
prognosis right, he just has (in my opinion) the diagnosis wrong---the Maga Seven
were smoking long before Trump got elected.
Outlook for 2025 S&P
dividends.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-near.html
There is a time to
make money and a time not to lose money.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-psychology-of-handling-large.html
The bond
vigilantes are butting heads with the ruling class.
Bond
Vigilantes Butting Heads With Washington's Profligate Crowd
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FedEx press
release (NYSE:FDX): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 beats by
$0.12.
Revenue of $22B
(-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $90M
FedEx
is spinning off its freight division.
FedEx
Freight to be separated and listed as a new public company (NYSE:FDX) | Seeking
Alpha
Nike press
release (NYSE:NKE): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.78 beats by $0.15.
Revenue of
$12.35B (-7.8% Y/Y) beats by $240M; and down 9 percent on a
currency-neutral basis.
Kroger (NYSE:KR) on Thursday said it has entered into accelerated
share repurchase agreements (ASR) to repurchase, in aggregate, $5 billion in
shares of common stock.
What
I am reading today
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