The Morning Call---Inflation is rising again

 

The Morning Call

 

12/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoins-gain-big-tech-pain-goldman-warns-seasonal-gift-low-vol-increases-jan

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.7% while purchase applications were up 1.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were slightly better than in the prior week.

 

November industrial production fell 0.1% versus consensus of +0.3%.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/industrial-production-continues-to-slide.html

 

November housing starts were down 1.8% versus projections of up 2.3%; November preliminary building permits were up 6.1% versus +1.3%.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/renter-nation-returns-multi-family-building-permits-soared-november

 

                          The December housing index came in at 46 versus estimates of 47.

                           https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/nahb-builder-confidence-unchanged-in.html

 

                        International

 

October EU YoY construction output was up 0.2% versus predictions of -0.2%; November YoY CPI was up 2.2% versus +2.3%; YoY core CPI was up 2.7%, in line.

 

The November Japanese trade balance was -Y117.6 billion versus forecasts of -Y688.9 billion.

 

The November UK CPI was up 0.1%, in line; the core CPI was flat versus +0.2%; the December industrial trade orders index was -40 versus -22.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on household net worth.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-us-is-king-of-net-worth.html

 

                          Latest Q4 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-nowcast-17-december-2024/#more-23270

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A suggestion for DOGE.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2024/12/16/elons-and-viveks-only-chance-to-dodge-disaster-dumping-dollars-downward/

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation rising again.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/inflation-rising-again/

 

            Recession

 

              The probability of a recession in the next 12 months drops below 50%.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/12/us-recession-probability-drops-below-50.html

 

            The Global Economy

 

              China targets 5% growth in 2025.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/china-plans-about-5-gdp-target-in-2025-reuters-says?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              German business mood hits post pandemic low.

              https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/german-business-enters-midwinter-gloom-amid-political-woes-industrial-slump-be8ede4b?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              Rest of the globe tries gaming Trump’s new world order.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-17/new-world-disorder-is-disrupting-business-as-usual?srnd=homepage-americas

 

    Investing

 

            Stocks face risk from a change in Treasury funding policy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/over-owned-over-valued-over-bought-stocks-face-bigger-threat-bessent

               

            A(nother) word of caution.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-this-frothy-market-has-me-scared-295c07c3?st=niw72m&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            The trouble with US equity exceptionalism.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/12/17/the-trouble-with-us-equity-exceptionalism/

 

            China buying massive amounts of gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/china-secretly-buying-massive-amounts-gold-10x-more-officially-reported-goldman

 

            Crypto bulls: hype versus reality.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crypto-bulls-hype-vs-reality

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.76/share quarterly dividend, 15.2% increase from prior dividend of $0.66.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Best movies of 2024.

            https://variety.com/lists/best-movies-2024/owen-gleiberman-top-10-list-2024/

 

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