The Morning Call--Over exuberant positioning

 

The Morning Call

 

12/11/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/mega-cap-pumpndump-ahead-cpi-bitcoin-slumps-gold-jumps

 

            Melt up or no melt up?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/late-1990s-style-leadership-melt

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 5.4% while purchase applications were down 4.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales reversed last week’s dramatic spike and plunged versus the prior week.

 

November CPI came in at +0.3%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3%, also in line.

 

                        International

 

                          November Japanese PPI was up 0.3% versus estimates of up 0.2%.

 

November Chinese YoY vehicle sales were up 11.7% versus predictions of +7.5%.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              Is the downshift in inflation stalling?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-downshift-in-us-inflation-stalling/

 

              Surge in interest rates spikes unaffordability of new homes.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/12/surge-in-mortgage-rates-spikes.html

 

              The case for decelerating inflation.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-case-for-accelerating-inflation-is.html

 

              Counterpoint: inflation is not going away.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dc-we-have-problem-inflation-not-going-away

 

            Tariffs

 

              An argument that tariffs are misunderstood.

              https://www.ft.com/content/3c95a4cd-2dcb-46d8-8cf6-606ab5e28c51

 

              Tariffs could cause supply chain disruptions.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trumps-tariffs-could-spark-supply-chain-disruptions-experts-say

 

            China

 

              China economists ramp up expectations for rate cuts, more spending.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-10/china-seen-expanding-budget-and-cutting-rates-after-stimulus-vow?srnd=homepage-americas

 

    Investing

 

            Over exuberant positioning.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/12/10/december-rally-over-exuberant-positioning

 

            Plenty of stock buybacks to come.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-10/buybacks-1-trillion-milestone-will-come-just-in-time-for-stock-investors?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Four types of investment mistakes.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-4-types-of-investment-mistakes/

 

            Yield spreads and borrowing costs.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/09/amid-credit-market-mania-yield-spreads-are-near-record-lows-but-corporate-cre-borrowing-costs-are-still-much-higher/

 

            Dalio backs gold and bitcoin.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dalio-predicts-global-debt-crisis-backs-bitcoin-gold

 

            What could go wrong in 2025?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/negative-curveballs-2025-deutsche-bank-fears-uber-bulls-bond-vigilantes-revenge-yield-curve

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The damage money has done to sports.

            https://www.honest-broker.com/p/i-say-forbidden-things-about-sports

 

                       

 

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