The Morning Call
12/17/24
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Retail has never
been so long.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-owner-us-stocks-has-never-been-so-long
Treasury curve
uninverts.
Is gold’s glow
starting to fade?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-glow-fades-make-or-break-2610
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
November retail
sales were up 0.7% versus predictions of +0.5%; ex autos, they were up 0.2%
versus +0.4%.
The December flash
manufacturing PMI was 48.3 versus forecasts of 49.8; the flash services PMI was
58.5 versus 55.7; the flash composite PMI was 56.6 versus 54.4.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-manufacturing-pmi-plunges-services-soar-38-month-high
International
The October UK unemployment
rate was 4.3%, in line; November average earnings (3 mo.YoY) were up 5.2%
versus +4.6%.
The October EU
trade balance was +E6.8 billion versus expectations of +E11.7 billion; the
December economic sentiment index was 17.0 versus 12.2.
The December
German business climate index was 84.7 versus estimates of 85.6; the December
current conditions index was 85.1 versus 84.0; the December economic sentiment
index was 15.7 versus 6.5.
Other
Headwinds and tailwinds.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/12/headwinds-and-tailwinds.html
Philly Fed says that all those jobs created
in Q2 were fake.
Updating non-financial long leading economic
indicators.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/updating-nonfinancial-long-leading.html
The European malaise.
https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/the-european-malaise
Monetary
Policy
The Fed faces an important choice after the
coming rate cut.
ECB will likely lower rates further.
Investing
China FX outflows
prime next bitcoin surge.
The 2025 outlook
for real assets.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/2025-outlook-for-real-assets/
High P/E is not a
market sell signal.
https://www.tker.co/p/valuations-terrible-stock-market-timing-tool
I have long contended
that anyone can be a successful stock picker (Wilber Mills famously had a
monkey throw darts at the Wall Street Journal and its ‘picks’ outperformed the
S&P and a majority of mutual funds). It is the investor with a reasoned,
consistently executed sell strategy that produces the highest long term returns.
While this article is written for traders, its lessons apply equally to long term
investors.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-psychology-of-handling-large.html
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