Tuesday, December 17, 2024

The Morning Call--Headwiinds and tailwinds

 

The Morning Call

 

12/17/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-roars-new-record-high-stocks-suffer-worst-breadth-911

 

            Retail has never been so long.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biggest-owner-us-stocks-has-never-been-so-long

 

            Treasury curve uninverts.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/14/yield-curve-un-inverts-further-on-surging-longer-term-treasury-yields-10-year-yield-now-higher-than-all-shorter-yields-mortgage-rates-re-surge/

 

            Is gold’s glow starting to fade?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-glow-fades-make-or-break-2610

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November retail sales were up 0.7% versus predictions of +0.5%; ex autos, they were up 0.2% versus +0.4%.

 

The December flash manufacturing PMI was 48.3 versus forecasts of 49.8; the flash services PMI was 58.5 versus 55.7; the flash composite PMI was 56.6 versus 54.4.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-manufacturing-pmi-plunges-services-soar-38-month-high

 

                        International

 

The October UK unemployment rate was 4.3%, in line; November average earnings (3 mo.YoY) were up 5.2% versus +4.6%.

 

The October EU trade balance was +E6.8 billion versus expectations of +E11.7 billion; the December economic sentiment index was 17.0 versus 12.2.

 

The December German business climate index was 84.7 versus estimates of 85.6; the December current conditions index was 85.1 versus 84.0; the December economic sentiment index was 15.7 versus 6.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          Headwinds and tailwinds.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/12/headwinds-and-tailwinds.html

 

                          Philly Fed says that all those jobs created in Q2 were fake.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/biden-lied-about-everything-philly-fed-finds-all-jobs-created-q2-were-fake

 

                          Updating non-financial long leading economic indicators.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/updating-nonfinancial-long-leading.html

 

                          The European malaise.

                          https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/the-european-malaise

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed faces an important choice after the coming rate cut.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-16/the-fed-faces-an-important-choice-after-this-rate-cut?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              ECB will likely lower rates further.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/ecb-set-to-lower-key-rate-further-as-protectionism-threatens-says-lagarde-9d646d84?mod=economy_lead_pos2

 

     Investing

 

            China FX outflows prime next bitcoin surge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/china-fx-outflows-soar-beijing-prepares-next-currency-devaluation-priming-next-bitcoin-surge

 

            The 2025 outlook for real assets.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/2025-outlook-for-real-assets/

 

            High P/E is not a market sell signal.

            https://www.tker.co/p/valuations-terrible-stock-market-timing-tool

 

I have long contended that anyone can be a successful stock picker (Wilber Mills famously had a monkey throw darts at the Wall Street Journal and its ‘picks’ outperformed the S&P and a majority of mutual funds). It is the investor with a reasoned, consistently executed sell strategy that produces the highest long term returns. While this article is written for traders, its lessons apply equally to long term investors.

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-psychology-of-handling-large.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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