The Morning Call
12/4/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Big boom
potential.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-boom-potential-best-100-years
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
were up 2.8% while purchase applications increased 5.6%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew much more rapidly than in the prior week.
October job openings
(JOLTS) totaled 7.7 million versus consensus of 7.5 million.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/jolts-report-for-october-continuing.html
The November ADP private
payroll report showed new jobs totaled 146,000 versus projections of 150,000.
The December
economic optimism index was reported at 54.0 versus estimates of 54.1.
International
The October EU PPI came in at +0.4%, in line.
The November Chinese
Caixin services PMI was 51.5 versus expectations of 52.5; the composite PMI was
52.5 versus 51.4; the November German services PMI was 49.3 versus 49.4; the
composite PMI was 47.2 versus 47.3; the November EU services PMI was 49.5
versus 49.2; the composite PMI was 48.3 versus 48.1; the November UK services
PMI was 50.8 versus 50.0; the composite PMI was 50.5 versus 49.9.
Other
October median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/12/median-household-income-in-october-2024.html
Inflation
Inflation
distractions.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/12/03/distractions-inflation
Tariffs
In praise of (Chinese) tariffs.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/12/yes_tariffs_are_a_tax_what_about_it.html
The problems with
Trump’s tariff threats. Note: being the global reserve currency is a major
blessing for the US. It is a big reason that we can finance our growing deficits
with little impact on our (1) interest rates and (2) ability to sell massive
quantities of US Treasuries (as world trade grows, more dollars are needed to
affect transactions, hence the greater demand for Treasuries). Using that
blessing to bludgeon other countries to conform to our wishes encourages them
to find alternatives. If we piss off enough countries, they will ultimately
find a way to function without the dollar. And when that occurs, we will have
only ourselves to blame.
Geopolitics
The new world disorder.
Investing
Leverage and speculation are at extremes.
Leverage
And Speculation Are At Extremes - RIA
The risk of buying stocks today.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everybody-loves-us-stocks
Questions for the
new year.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-questions-for-the-new-year/?src=news
Outrageous
predictions for 2025.
Five highlights
from Goldman’s consumer specialist.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/solid-start-holidays-5-highlights-goldmans-consumer-specialist
Strategies for
retirement.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/12/01/not-counting-social-security-colas/76688757007/
An interview with
Jim Grant.
https://themarket.ch/interview/interest-rates-are-not-sticking-to-the-central-banks-script-ld.12580
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.83/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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