Wednesday, December 4, 2024

The Morning Call---Leverage and speculation are at extremes

 

The Morning Call

 

12/4/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/south-korea-sparks-chaos-across-markets-crude-crypto-small-caps-wild-won-lost

 

            Big boom potential.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-boom-potential-best-100-years

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 2.8% while purchase applications increased 5.6%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

October job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.7 million versus consensus of 7.5 million.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/jolts-report-for-october-continuing.html

 

The November ADP private payroll report showed new jobs totaled 146,000 versus projections of 150,000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-employment-disappoints-sees-big-downward-revision-weak-manufacturing

 

The December economic optimism index was reported at 54.0 versus estimates of 54.1.

 

                        International

 

                          The October EU PPI came in at +0.4%, in line.

 

The November Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.5 versus expectations of 52.5; the composite PMI was 52.5 versus 51.4; the November German services PMI was 49.3 versus 49.4; the composite PMI was 47.2 versus 47.3; the November EU services PMI was 49.5 versus 49.2; the composite PMI was 48.3 versus 48.1; the November UK services PMI was 50.8 versus 50.0; the composite PMI was 50.5 versus 49.9.

 

                        Other

 

                          October median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/12/median-household-income-in-october-2024.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation distractions.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/12/03/distractions-inflation

 

            Tariffs

 

              In praise of (Chinese) tariffs.

              https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/12/yes_tariffs_are_a_tax_what_about_it.html

 

The problems with Trump’s tariff threats. Note: being the global reserve currency is a major blessing for the US. It is a big reason that we can finance our growing deficits with little impact on our (1) interest rates and (2) ability to sell massive quantities of US Treasuries (as world trade grows, more dollars are needed to affect transactions, hence the greater demand for Treasuries). Using that blessing to bludgeon other countries to conform to our wishes encourages them to find alternatives. If we piss off enough countries, they will ultimately find a way to function without the dollar. And when that occurs, we will have only ourselves to blame.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/12/trump-threatens-brics-countries-with-100-tariffs-if-they-ditch-the-dollar.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The new world disorder.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-03/syria-georgia-and-ukraine-just-gave-us-a-glimpse-of-the-post-american-world?srnd=homepage-americas

           

     Investing

 

            Leverage and speculation are at extremes.

            Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes - RIA

 

            The risk of buying stocks today.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everybody-loves-us-stocks

           

            Questions for the new year.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-questions-for-the-new-year/?src=news

 

            Outrageous predictions for 2025.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvda-doubles-aapl-trump-blows-dollar-end-opec-saxos-outrageous-predictions-2025

 

            Five highlights from Goldman’s consumer specialist.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/solid-start-holidays-5-highlights-goldmans-consumer-specialist

 

            Strategies for retirement.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/12/01/not-counting-social-security-colas/76688757007/

 

            An interview with Jim Grant.

            https://themarket.ch/interview/interest-rates-are-not-sticking-to-the-central-banks-script-ld.12580

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.83/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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