Friday, December 13, 2024

The Morning Call--Yellen's 'sorry' goodbye---and good riddance

 

The Morning Call

 

12/13/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/sell-all-things-hot-flation-sends-dollar-higher-everything-else-down

 

            Crowding risks and the final push.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crowding-risks-rate-moves-and-final-push-ahead

 

            The latest from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/twelve-trading-days-christmas-goldman-flows-guru-explains-when-fade-rally

 

            The upside vacuum risk in the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-upside-vacuum-risk

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

                        US

 

                        International

 

October Japanese industrial production rose 2.8% versus estimates of +3.0%; capacity utilization was up 2.6% versus +1.0%; the Q4 large manufacturers index was 14 versus 12; the Q4 large nonmanufacturers index was 33 versus 32; the Q4 small manufacturers index was 1 versus -2.

 

The October German trade balance was +E13.4 billion versus projections of +E16.1 billion; November PPI was 0% versus +0.2%.

 

October UK GDP declined 0.1% versus consensus of +0.1%; the October trade balance was -L3.7 billion versus -L3.1 billion; October industrial production declined 0.6% versus +0.3%; October YoY construction output was down 0.7% versus 0.0%.

 

October EU industrial production was flat versus expectations of -0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Recession alert weekly economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/12/11/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                          Q3 household net worth increased $4.8 trillion.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/feds-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html

 

                          Seasonality strikes jobless claims.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/jobless-claims-seasonality-strikes-again.html

 

                          Data collection agencies are having a funding problem. What that means.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/market-moving-us-data-under-threat-as-trump-returns?srnd=homepage-americas

 

                          The number of problem banks increased in Q3.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/fdic-number-of-problem-banks-increased.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

  Inflation numbers suggest that the Fed is close to ending rate cuts.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cuts-2025-647ff34d?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              ECB cuts rates and drops hawkish language.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-cuts-rates-expected-euro-tumbles-after-reference-restrictive-policy-dropped

 

              The bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed.

              The Bond Vigilantes Are Fighting The Fed

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

               Yellen’s ‘sorry’ farewell---and good riddance.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/janet-yellen-sorry-after-presiding-over-15-trillion-increase-us-debt

 

 

            Inflation

             

              A deeper dive into November CPI.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/11/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation-cpi-core-cpi-accelerate-further-month-to-month-the-3-month-averages-heat-up-for-4th-month-in-a-row/

 

 

     Investing

 

Stocks are expensive and nobody cares (except all those authors that I have linked to over the past two weeks).

https://www.ft.com/content/3ef45d04-08fb-4372-8df0-524becd39963

 

But select stocks outside of big cap that remain attractively priced. (on my list: HSY,NKE,POOL,TGT,ES,MPWR,MKTX)

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/12/11/valuations-richened-yet-areas-outside-large-caps-still-attractive                     

 

            The market premium on the ten year Treasury continues to rise.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-12-december-2024/

 

            Top ranked crypto exchanges.

            https://www.investopedia.com/is-now-the-time-to-invest-in-bitcoin-get-started-with-a-top-ranked-crypto-exchange-8759140

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) declared $0.57/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/12/quotation-of-the-day-4856.html

 

            The largest pirate booty wasn’t from the Caribbean.

            These pirates left the Caribbean behind—and stole the biggest booty ever

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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