The Morning Call
12/13/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Crowding risks and
the final push.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crowding-risks-rate-moves-and-final-push-ahead
The latest from Goldman’s
flows guru.
The upside vacuum risk
in the dollar.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-upside-vacuum-risk
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
October Japanese
industrial production rose 2.8% versus estimates of +3.0%; capacity utilization
was up 2.6% versus +1.0%; the Q4 large manufacturers index was 14 versus 12;
the Q4 large nonmanufacturers index was 33 versus 32; the Q4 small
manufacturers index was 1 versus -2.
The October German
trade balance was +E13.4 billion versus projections of +E16.1 billion; November
PPI was 0% versus +0.2%.
October UK GDP declined
0.1% versus consensus of +0.1%; the October trade balance was -L3.7 billion
versus -L3.1 billion; October industrial production declined 0.6% versus +0.3%;
October YoY construction output was down 0.7% versus 0.0%.
October EU
industrial production was flat versus expectations of -0.1%.
Other
Recession alert weekly economic index.
Q3 household net worth increased $4.8 trillion.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/feds-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html
Seasonality strikes jobless claims.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/jobless-claims-seasonality-strikes-again.html
Data collection agencies are having a funding
problem. What that means.
The number of problem banks increased in Q3.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/fdic-number-of-problem-banks-increased.html
Monetary
Policy
Inflation numbers suggest that the Fed is
close to ending rate cuts.
ECB cuts rates and
drops hawkish language.
The bond vigilantes are fighting the Fed.
The
Bond Vigilantes Are Fighting The Fed
Fiscal
Policy
Yellen’s ‘sorry’ farewell---and good riddance.
Inflation
A deeper dive into November CPI.
Investing
Stocks are expensive
and nobody cares (except all those authors that I have linked to over the past two
weeks).
https://www.ft.com/content/3ef45d04-08fb-4372-8df0-524becd39963
But select stocks outside
of big cap that remain attractively priced. (on my list: HSY,NKE,POOL,TGT,ES,MPWR,MKTX)
The market premium
on the ten year Treasury continues to rise.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-12-december-2024/
Top ranked crypto
exchanges.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Williams-Sonoma
(NYSE:WSM) declared $0.57/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/12/quotation-of-the-day-4856.html
The largest pirate booty wasn’t from
the Caribbean.
These
pirates left the Caribbean behind—and stole the biggest booty ever
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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