The Morning Call---Rebalancing risk raises its ugly head

 

The Morning Call

 

12/3/24

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/paris-pmis-puking-crypto-good-news-sparks-re-inversion-yield-curve

 

            Breakouts, bullish bets and upside vacuum risks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/breakouts-bullish-bets-and-upside-vacuum-risks

 

            Bears are back.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/why-so-serious-8

 

From Traderfeed: 12/2/24 - Here's a great real time example of how a process orientation to trading can also provide a positive trading psychology:  My breadth research, tracking the percentage of all NYSE stocks over various moving averages since 2006, shows that over 75% of stocks are trading above their short, medium, and longer-term moving averages. When this has happened in the past, returns 10-20 days out have been subnormal. I then examined the historical periods most similar to the current one in terms of breadth and volatility and two periods stood out:  early 2018 and early 2007. Both led to intermediate-term corrections, but not outright bear markets.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October construction spending rose 0.4% versus expectations of +0.2%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/construction-spending-increased-04-in.html

 

                          The November manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus estimates of 48.8.

 

The November ISM manufacturing index was 48.4 versus predictions of 47.5.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/ism-manufacturing-index-increased-to.html

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Debt to GDP worsens in Q3.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/29/federal-government-fiscal-mess-q3-2024-interest-payments-to-tax-receipts-ratio-spikes-debt-to-gdp-ratio-worsens-further/

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation is low but living costs are high.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/inflation-is-low-but-living-costs-are-high/

 

              How much has the price level risen for the consumer?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/11/how-much-has-the-price-level-risen-for-consumers-seven-measures

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs: a wild card for 2025.

              https://www.morningstar.com/markets/everything-is-table-how-companies-are-preparing-trump-tariffs

 

      Investing

 

            Rebalancing risk raises its ugly head.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rebalancing-risk-rears-its-ugly-head-year-end-stock-valuations-are-sky-high

 

            What investment managers aren’t telling you.

            https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-investment-managers-arent-telling-you-b7a039eb?st=yKMifW

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia press release (NYSE:BNS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.57.

Revenue of C$8.53B (+2.6% Y/Y).

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares CAD 1.06/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Studying Biblical stories for clues about Jesus.

            Biblical stories of Jesus' birth reveal intriguing clues about his times

 

 

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