The Morning Call
12/19/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Note: yesterday's
pin action was the first sign of any real technical damage with the S&P closing
below its 50 DMA (~5922). It needs to finish below that level today to confirm
a reset from support to resistance. If it recovers, then yesterday could well
be a selling climax for the current mini downtrend. If not then other support
levels to watch are (1) the filling of the 11/6 gap up open [~5786], (2) the
100 DMA [~5743] and (3) the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend
[~5710]. Clearly a lot of support inside the next 100 points to the downside. Today,
follow through is the word.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/life-after-crash-index-charts-watch
Three massive
golden crosses.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-massive-golden-crosses
The second largest
VIX spike ever.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/2nd-largest-vix-spike-ever
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 220,000
versus estimates of 230,000.
Q3 final GDP growth
was 3.1% versus expectations of 2.8%; the PCE price index was 2.2% versus 2.1%;
real consumer spending was up 3.7% versus +3.5%; corporate profits were down
0.4% versus 0.0%.
The December Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index came in at -16.4 versus consensus of +3.
International
The January German
consumer confidence index was -21.3 versus predictions of -22.5.
Other
Mid December business cycle indicators.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/12/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-december
Inside the November retail sales figures.
Monetary Policy
The December FOMC
meeting wrapped up yesterday. As expected, it (1) lowered the Fed funds rate
another 25 basis points and (2) increased the hawkish narrative of its post
meeting official statement as well as its ‘dot plot’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-23
Fiscal
Policy
There
is a new sheriff in town. Thank heavens. That’s the good long term news. However, recall my earlier link to a study
that concluded the corporate profitability was positively correlated to
government debt. So short term, a shrinking deficit suggests shrinking profits.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/pork-city-johnson-tries-ram-through-insane-funding-package
Recession
Housing sector forecasting recession.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-housing-sector-now-hoists-red-flag.html
Catching down to the global economy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-conditions-portend-catch-down-america
Investing
How will the
mother of all bubbles pop?
https://www.ft.com/content/9a0da0d6-92b4-4034-ac25-7b4abcbb0bbe
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declared $1.48/share
quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2024/12/quotation-of-the-day-4862.html
The health
benefits of olive oil.
No
food or medicine can do what olive oil can do. Here's why.
The most important conversation to
have before you die.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/well/advance-care-directive-living-will-dnr.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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