The Morning Call---Emphasize value and diversification

 

The Morning Call

 

12/5/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/paris-powell-piss-poor-pmis-prompt-bid-bonds-bullion-bitcoin-big-tech

 

            The latest from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/7-reasons-year-end-fomo-stocks-goldman-flows-guru-sees-record-inflows-retail-back

 

            Be long and buy puts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/be-longand-buy-cheap-puts

 

            Short squeezes can’t go on forever.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-squeezes-cant-carry-forever

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 224,000 versus estimates of 215,000.

 

The October trade balance was -$73.8 billion versus predictions of -$75.0 billion.

 

October factory orders were up 0.2%, in line; ex transportation, they were up 0.1% versus +0.2%.

 

The November services PMI was 56.1 versus forecasts of 57.0; the composite PMI was 54.9 versus 55.3.

 

The November ISM nonmanufacturing index was 52.1 versus expectations of 55.5.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2024/12/ism-non-manufacturing-shows-that.html

 

                        International

 

October German factory orders declined 1.5% versus consensus of -2.0%; the November construction PMI was 38.0 versus 40.6.

 

October EU retail sales fell 0.5% versus projections of -0.3%; the November construction PMI was 42.7 versus 43.5.

 

The November UK construction PMI 55.2 versus estimates of 53.4; November YoY new car sales were down 1.9% versus -3.5%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Macro variables look mostly great.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/12/key-macro-variables-look-mostly-great.html

 

                                  How do we keep growth going?

                          https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/why-is-growth-so-good-and-how-do

 

                                  October business cycle indicators.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/12/business-cycle-indicators-for-october-including-monthly-gdp

 

                                  Inside Monday’s JOLTS report.      

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/03/underlying-job-market-dynamics-begin-to-retighten-the-fed-is-already-backpedaling-on-the-pace-and-depth-of-rate-cuts/

 

                                  OECD expects higher global growth in 2025.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/world-economy-to-accelerate-in-2025-but-recovery-threatened-by-higher-tariffs-oecd-says-   ae4de14c?mod=economy_lead_story

 

                                  The Atlanta Fed raises its Q4 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-economic-growth-accelerating-in-q4/

 

                                  November heavy truck sales advanced.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/heavy-truck-sales-increased-in-4-yoy-in.html

 

                                  Latest Fed Beige Book report reasonably positive.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/12/feds-beige-book-economic-activity-rose.html

 

                          A turning point for the dollar is coming.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/7b97f48b-87e2-4cb3-bd3c-4e963356f109

 

            Geopolitics

 

              We are closer than ever to nuclear war with Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/tucker-carlson-returns-russia-warns-we-are-closer-nuclear-war-ever

 

 

         Investing

 

            Emphasize value and diversification as investors throw caution to the wind.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/12/04/emphasize-value-investors-throw-caution-wind

 

            Caution from BofA’s derivatives desk.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/supercharged-ai-bubble-or-epic-market-bust-bofa-derivative-desks-dire-2025-outlook

 

            Crypto is out of the sin bin.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/cryptos-out-of-the-sin-bin-heres-how-to-invest/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP715&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Fast growers are common; fast compounders are rare.

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/fast-growers-are-common-fast-compounders

 

            November dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/12/dividends-by-numbers-in-november-2024.html

 

            US markets are swallowing the rest of the world.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/u-s-markets-are-swallowing-the-rest-of-the-world/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declared $1.42/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Kroger press release (NYSE:KR): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 in-line.

Revenue of $33.63B (-1.0% Y/Y) misses by $570M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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