The Morning Call---US government debt hits $33 trillion

 

The Morning Call

 

9/19/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-big-tech-pump-and-dump-gold-gains-yield-curve-crushed

 

            Tired generals.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-tired-generals

 

Deteriorating breadth.

https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1703777513992790078

 

Margin debt went down in August.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/18/margin-debt-august-2023

 

There is no conviction.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/high-conviction-neutral-0

 

Ten things that you need to know about the rally in oil.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/10-things-you-need-know-about-oil-rally

 

October weakness before year end run?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/october-weakness-year-end-run

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

August housing starts fell 11.3% versus estimates of -2.5%; August building permits rose 6.9% versus -1.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/housing-starts-plunged-august-renter-nation-collapses

 

                          The September housing index came in at 45 versus consensus of 50.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/18/housing-market-index-builder-confidence-nahb-mortgage-rates

 

                        International

 

                          The August EU CPI was +0.5% versus expectations of +0.6%.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  The impact of global rate rises has yet to be felt.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/full-impact-global-rate-rises-yet-be-felt-markets

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  US government debt hits $33 trillion.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-debt-rises-above-33-trillion-first-time-surges-1-trillion-3-months

 

Inflation

 

  What if disinflation proves transitory?

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-disinflation-turns-out-be-transitory

 

            Recession

 

              Here comes the soft landing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rule-72-how-long-does-it-take-double-your-money

 

              Counterpoint---from the Fed whisperer.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-a-soft-landing-could-prove-elusive-3d17e134?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

              This analyst is optimistic on housing.

              https://investorplace.com/2023/09/worried-about-a-housing-market-crash-get-ready-for-a-new-bull-market-instead/

 

              Still no boom, no bust.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/09/still-no-boom-no-bust.html

 

              Continuing signs of growth.

              Monthly GDP and Coincident Index | Econbrowser

 

              How long can borrowers hold on as higher interest rates bite?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-09-18/world-s-borrowers-fret-on-how-long-fed-and-peers-will-keep-interest-rates-high?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Government Shutdown

 

              McCarthy unsure if short term funding bill will pass.

              https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-gop-groups-propose-agreement-short-term-government/story?id=103268993

 

            Civil Strife

 

              Boldly into chaos.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/kunstler-party-chaos-certainly-trying-provoke-something-civil-war

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Covid 19 vaccine shown to be neither safe nor effective.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/covid-19-vaccines-revealed-be-neither-safe-nor-effective-watchdog

 

            Geopolitics

 

              A long war in Ukraine?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/milley-stoltenberg-agree-we-must-prepare-ourselves-long-war-ukraine

 

              The US is at war with Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-united-states-war-against-us

 

            China

 

              China’s economy still faces headwinds.

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-economy-shows-fresh-signs-of-fragile-recovery-f20b32f2?mod=economy_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=274537693&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--Ud-9uQLBLRzeSAl0SoinN-WAspzRSXyW_6-MaTe4UvP-vcuRpDMVj-X5IK0DsMIiXqFYOS_zX0_qEd0UYIEDWp8Kn8Q&utm_content=274537693&utm_source=hs_email

 

              Housing is still a problem for China’s economy.

              https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-housing-country-garden-ea0db13f?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

     Bottom line

 

            Predictions are pointless.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/18/predictions-pointless-listen-gurus-lance-roberts

 

            When predictions go wrong.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2023/09/when-predictions-go-wrong-defensive.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The US just hit the lithium jackpot.

            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/america-just-hit-the-lithium-jackpot/ar-AA1gJc8I

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/09/quotation-of-the-day-4393.html

 

 

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