The Morning Call---Credit card losses are surging

The Morning Call

 

9/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-purged-crude-king-dollar-surge-qtr-end

 

Note: the S&P tested the lower boundary of its short-term uptrend and bounced.  I count that as a victory.   Meanwhile, the long bond held above (but still closed only $.30 away) the lower boundary of its long-term trading range.  Another small victory.  However, the DJIA finished its second day below its 200 DMA; and the dollar continued to roar, making its second gap up open for the week.  (remember a strong dollar is not usually good for equities).  Clearly, we are not out of the woods.

 

Three more charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-bounce-belief-still-un-broken

 

The option market is pointing to S&P 4210 on Friday’s option expiration.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-collar-put-strike-play-market-hits-meaningful-short-gamma-pocket

 

            Risk off odds rising.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-off-odds-rising-as-markets-retreat-and-bond-yields-rise/

 

            This move down is different.

            https://twitter.com/AndrewThrasher/status/1707081932721238285

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 204,000 versus estimates of 225,000.

 

Final Q2 GDP growth was 2.1%, in line; final PCE price index was +2.5%, in line; final core PCE index was 3.7%, in line; final corporate profits were +0.5% versus +1.6%; final real consumer spending was +0.8% versus +1.7%.

 

                        International

                             

  The September EU economic sentiment index came in at 93.2 versus                                            expectations of 92.5; the industrial sentiment index was -9.0 versus -10.5; the services index was 4 versus 3.5; consumer confidence was -17.8, in line.

 

  September German preliminary CPI was +0.3, in line.

 

                        Other

                   

                          Larry Summers addresses six economic misconceptions.

                          https://www.themoneyillusion.com/the-wisdom-of-larry-summers-3/

 

            The Fed

 

              No one seems to care about the Fed’s $110 billion operating deficit.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4221960-the-feds-100-billion-cash-losses-should-be-a-far-bigger-story/

 

              A government shutdown would blindfold the Fed.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-government-shutdown-interest-rates-77815edc?mod=economy_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=275838114&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--vRrCGSYHe2-rm3LxLSTVmCbh4nt_e-AGcSmPF55RZcjl-grBmt_okkzJYEy938KGegSSZz-t0B3V9hydKR1tH-NchDA&utm_content=275838114&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Putting our debt in perspective.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/it-will-end-disaster

 

            Inflation

 

              JP Morgan thinks oil is headed to $150 a barrel.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-shale-giant-agrees-jpmorgan-oil-headed-150

           

Recession

 

              Americans starting to fell the sting of higher rates.

  https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/interest-rate-hikes-consumer-debt-d2b74401?mod=hp_lead_pos7&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=275838114&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--1zt9nwp-kfnyrpKQsyKWEUGYzPSXthKHATZtrm_LJp-Gm79klCupZNMxTay65XR1u1jLYfuZNGSOsiaFHCGsYtDP3sA&utm_content=275838114&utm_source=hs_email

 

 Credit card losses are surging.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/credit-card-losses-are-surging-fastest-pace-global-financial-crisis

 

Government Shutdown

 

  The economic risks grow the longer a shutdown lasts.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/us-government-shutdown-s-economic-risks-grow-the-longer-it-lasts?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Senate working on stop gap measure.

              https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4224642-senate-grabs-wheel-from-house-in-bid-to-avoid-shutdown/

             

 But the house not likely to go along?

              https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/26/senate-shutdown-prevention-plan-00118277

 

            China

 

              China’s business environment is deteriorating.

  https://www.wsj.com/business/chinas-business-environment-is-deteriorating-u-s-companies-say-e9c3fb2c?mod=business_lead_pos4&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=275838114&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9mSTknyKXCIR1viEitY0woO5wIs9uU1aXdJg1N9kN8kBi4Eoy4oLa6SWQ0ZpCB2DsNylr6XvS4AKkXjXa-B2yslnaqcg&utm_content=275838114&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

            The coronavirus

 

             More research on the covid scare tactics.

             https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2023/09/27/pump-the-brakes-scientists-say-theres-something-off-with-these-long-covid-studies-n2629002

  

             More on the origin of the coronavirus (must read)

             https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cia-front-organization-revisiting-ecohealth-claims-after-fauci-influence-campaign

 

     Bottom line

           

            IPO optimism grows.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/us-ipo-market-s-green-shoots-get-the-2024-party-started-early?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Small caps disproportionally hurt by high rates.

            https://www.ft.com/content/9de514d5-678b-4b52-91e1-86fd53794d13

 

            The art of keeping things simple.

            https://www.ft.com/content/651cc7a4-27e3-4026-9381-76421a0203bb

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/to-avoid-embarrassing-falls-aides-will-now-transport-biden-strapped-to-presidential-hand-truck

 

            What is the most successful Hollywood movie of all time?

            https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/what-is-the-most-successful-hollywood-movie-of-all-time/

 

 

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