Wednesday, September 27, 2023

The Morning Call--What do they put in the water at the Fed?

The Morning Call

 

9/27/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wrath-khan-wrecks-tech-downbeat-dimon-batters-bonds-bullion-banks

 

Note: yesterday I posed the question---with the major indices either testing or near testing support/resistance levels, will they break or bounce?  It is looking more like the former: (1) the DJIA closed below its 200 DMA, (2) the long bond is now a half of a point away from the lower boundary of its long-term trading range, (3) the dollar ended above the upper boundary of its short-term uptrend and (4) the S&P is a short hair away from the lower boundary of its short-term uptrend.  So, we are still not yet at the point of a market breakdown---just uncomfortably close.  On the other hand, keep in mind that we are in the worse seasonal period of the year and we still have those big gap down/up opens from the prior week that need to be filled.  Meaning a buying opportunity may be approaching.   

 

            Three more charts to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-if-it-does-not-bounce-soon-it-can-get-nasty

 

            Selling starting to turn disorderly.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-jpm-trading-desks-warn-selling-starting-turn-disorderly

 

Buy Yom Kippur?

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/buy-yom-kippur

 

            VIX---from exuberance to fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-exuberance-serious-fear

 

            The number of stocks selling above their 200 DMA falling sharply.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/free-falling

 

            M&A makes a comeback.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/all-dry-powder-ma-set-make-comeback

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.3% while purchase applications were down 1.5%.

 

The July Case Shiller home price index rose 0.8% versus estimates of +0.5%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/26/s-p-case-shiller-home-price-index-continues-to-trend-upward-in-july

 

                           August new home sales fell 8.7% versus projections of -1.7%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/26/new-home-sales-tumble-august-2023

                                    

    August durable goods orders rose 0.2% versus forecasts of -0.5%; ex       transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.  

                                        https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/durable-goods-orders-unexpectedly-bounced-august

                                    

The September consumer confidence index came in at 103 versus consensus of 105.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/26/consumer-confidence-index-conference-board-declined-again-september

 

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at +5 versus expectations of -6.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/26/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-improved-august

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese leading economic indicators were 108.2 versus predictions of 107.6.

 

October German consumer confidence was -26.5 versus estimates of -26.0.

 

                        Other

                         

                          Trends in consumer spending.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/visualizing-trends-in-american-consumer.html

 

            The Fed

 

              What do they put in the water at the Fed?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/09/24/weekly-market-pulse-higher-for-longer/

 

  Jamis Dimon warns of possible 7% Fed Funds rate.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/dimon-warns-world-may-not-be-prepared-for-fed-at-7-toi-lmzl7rao?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              Global trade nosedives.

              https://www.cryptopolitan.com/global-trade-fastest-fall-since-covid/

 

              But there remains little indication of a recession in the US.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-most-anticipated-us-recession-in-history-still-lurking/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Time to stop backing Ukraine?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/it-time-stop-backing-ukraine

 

            China

 

              Teetering property giants undercut China’s recovery.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-25/china-s-ailing-property-market-faces-key-test-over-golden-week?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The coronavirus

 

              More misdirection from our ruling class.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fauci-was-smuggled-cia-headquarters-influence-covid-19-origins-investigation-select

 

     Bottom line

 

            Compound market returns are a myth.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/compound-market-returns-are-myth

 

            Investors’ shift from fear to greed.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/26/investors-fear-greed-presents-historic-opportunities-richard-bernstein

                       

            Bond investors worried about government shutdown.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/bond-traders-roiled-by-fed-see-us-shutdown-as-next-big-wild-card?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Is this a housing bubble?

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/09/25/is-this-a-housing-bubble/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/7-great-things-to-say-to-your-wife-on-her-period

                       

            How to get the best sleep of your life.

            https://bakadesuyo.com/2023/09/best-sleep/

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 


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