The Morning Call
9/27/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wrath-khan-wrecks-tech-downbeat-dimon-batters-bonds-bullion-banks
Note: yesterday I posed
the question---with the major indices either testing or near testing support/resistance
levels, will they break or bounce? It is
looking more like the former: (1) the DJIA closed below its 200 DMA, (2) the
long bond is now a half of a point away from the lower boundary of its long-term
trading range, (3) the dollar ended above the upper boundary of its short-term
uptrend and (4) the S&P is a short hair away from the lower boundary of its
short-term uptrend. So, we are still not
yet at the point of a market breakdown---just uncomfortably close. On the other hand, keep in mind that we are in
the worse seasonal period of the year and we still have those big gap down/up
opens from the prior week that need to be filled. Meaning a buying opportunity may be
approaching.
Three more charts
to watch.
Selling starting
to turn disorderly.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-jpm-trading-desks-warn-selling-starting-turn-disorderly
Buy Yom Kippur?
https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/buy-yom-kippur
VIX---from
exuberance to fear.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-exuberance-serious-fear
The number of
stocks selling above their 200 DMA falling sharply.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/free-falling
M&A makes a
comeback.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/all-dry-powder-ma-set-make-comeback
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 1.3% while purchase applications were down 1.5%.
The July Case
Shiller home price index rose 0.8% versus estimates of +0.5%.
August new home sales fell 8.7% versus
projections of -1.7%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/26/new-home-sales-tumble-august-2023
August durable goods orders rose 0.2% versus
forecasts of -0.5%; ex transportation,
they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/durable-goods-orders-unexpectedly-bounced-august
The September
consumer confidence index came in at 103 versus consensus of 105.5.
The September
Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at +5 versus expectations of -6.
International
The July Japanese leading
economic indicators were 108.2 versus predictions of 107.6.
October German consumer
confidence was -26.5 versus estimates of -26.0.
Other
Trends in consumer
spending.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/visualizing-trends-in-american-consumer.html
The
Fed
What do they put in the water at the Fed?
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/09/24/weekly-market-pulse-higher-for-longer/
Jamis Dimon warns of possible 7% Fed Funds
rate.
Recession
Global trade nosedives.
https://www.cryptopolitan.com/global-trade-fastest-fall-since-covid/
But there remains little indication of a
recession in the US.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-most-anticipated-us-recession-in-history-still-lurking/
Geopolitics
Time to stop backing Ukraine?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/it-time-stop-backing-ukraine
China
Teetering property giants undercut China’s recovery.
The
coronavirus
More misdirection from our ruling class.
Bottom line
Compound market
returns are a myth.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/compound-market-returns-are-myth
Investors’ shift from
fear to greed.
Bond investors
worried about government shutdown.
Is this a housing
bubble?
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/09/25/is-this-a-housing-bubble/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Wednesday
morning humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/7-great-things-to-say-to-your-wife-on-her-period
How
to get the best sleep of your life.
https://bakadesuyo.com/2023/09/best-sleep/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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