Friday, September 22, 2023

The Morning Call--The recession's start has been further delayed

 

The Morning Call

 

9/22/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-bloodbath-trounces-tech-batters-bitcoin-banks-bullion

 

Note:  it was not a fun day in stock land.  The S&P ended the day below its 100 DMA; if it closes there on Monday, it will revert to resistance.  Were that to occur further support exists at the 200 DMA (~4235) and the lower boundary of its short-term uptrend (~4189).  That said, the S&P, the DJIA and fully 75% of all the stocks in our Universe made gap down opens---which should generate a reflexive rally to close those gaps.  Maybe not today; but likely soon.  That is not to suggest that this decline is over.  Usually, days like yesterday are not isolated events.  And remember the last two weeks of September and the first two weeks of October are seasonally the worse period for stocks on the calendar.  So, brace up.

 

The good news is that a number of stocks have been trading near their Buy Value Ranges; and a further sell-off could provide a chance to Buy.  Patience.

 

            Three more charts to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-make-or-break

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August existing home sales declined 0.7% versus the forecast of +1.5%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_21.html

 

The August leading economic indicators fell 0.4% versus estimates of -0.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/21/leading-economic-index-conference-board-recession-fears

 

                        International

 

August Japanese CPI was +0.2% versus consensus of +0.6%; the September flash manufacturing PMI was 48.6 versus 49.9; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 54.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.8 versus 52.5.         

 

August UK retail sales were up 04% versus predictions of +0.5%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6%, in line; the September flash manufacturing PMI was 44.2 versus 43.0; the flash services PMI was 47.2 versus 49.2; the flash composite PMI was 46.8 versus 48.7.       

 

The September flash EU consumer confidence index was reported at -17.8 versus projections of -16.5; the September flash manufacturing PMI was 44.2 versus 43.0; the flash services PMI was 47.2 versus 49.2; the flash composite PMI was 47.1 versus 46.5.

 

The September flash German manufacturing PMI was 39.8 versus expectations of 39.5; the flash services PMI was 49.8 versus 47.2; the flash composite PMI was 46.2 versus 44.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          The slowdown in growth of median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/slower-growth-for-median-household.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Is the Fed ignoring signs of another financial collapse?

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4212035-is-the-fed-ignoring-signs-of-another-financial-collapse/

 

  Higher for longer, maybe much longer.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/higher-interest-rates-not-just-for-longer-but-maybe-forever-d5891964?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Recession

 

              The recession’s start is further delayed.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/ft-booth-september-survey

 

            Government Shutdown

 

              House leaders have a new plan.

              https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/house-republicans-government-shutdown-new-plan

 

            Civil Strife

 

When authorities believe their citizens will become dangerous.  I agree with Yves, climate change will hardly be the trigger.  But that doesn’t change the analysis of what is happening now.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/09/when-authorities-believe-their-citizens-will-become-dangerous.html

 

EU politician delivers message to the ruling class.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/go-hell-brave-eu-politician-delivers-damning-message-global-tyrants

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

What happened to civics, math, history etc.  We are educating a generation that can appreciate the finer aspects of butt f**king but can’t add or subtract.

https://www.thecollegefix.com/universities-welcome-students-back-with-queering-menstruation-anal-101-events/

 

Friday morning humor.

https://babylonbee.com/news/exclusive-babylon-bee-uncovers-why-stealth-plane-so-hard-to-find

 

 

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