The Morning Call
9/22/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-bloodbath-trounces-tech-batters-bitcoin-banks-bullion
Note: it was not a fun day in stock land. The S&P ended the day below its 100 DMA;
if it closes there on Monday, it will revert to resistance. Were that to occur further support exists at
the 200 DMA (~4235) and the lower boundary of its short-term uptrend (~4189). That said, the S&P, the DJIA and fully
75% of all the stocks in our Universe made gap down opens---which should
generate a reflexive rally to close those gaps.
Maybe not today; but likely soon.
That is not to suggest that this decline is over. Usually, days like yesterday are not isolated
events. And remember the last two weeks
of September and the first two weeks of October are seasonally the worse period
for stocks on the calendar. So, brace up.
The good news is
that a number of stocks have been trading near their Buy Value Ranges; and a
further sell-off could provide a chance to Buy.
Patience.
Three
more charts to watch.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-we-are-watching-make-or-break
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
August existing home sales declined 0.7%
versus the forecast of +1.5%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_21.html
The August leading
economic indicators fell 0.4% versus estimates of -0.5%.
International
August Japanese
CPI was +0.2% versus consensus of +0.6%; the September flash manufacturing PMI
was 48.6 versus 49.9; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 54.0; the flash
composite PMI was 51.8 versus 52.5.
August UK retail
sales were up 04% versus predictions of +0.5%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6%, in
line; the September flash manufacturing PMI was 44.2 versus 43.0; the flash
services PMI was 47.2 versus 49.2; the flash composite PMI was 46.8 versus
48.7.
The September
flash EU consumer confidence index was reported at -17.8 versus projections of
-16.5; the September flash manufacturing PMI was 44.2 versus 43.0; the flash services
PMI was 47.2 versus 49.2; the flash composite PMI was 47.1 versus 46.5.
The September
flash German manufacturing PMI was 39.8 versus expectations of 39.5; the flash
services PMI was 49.8 versus 47.2; the flash composite PMI was 46.2 versus
44.8.
Other
The slowdown in growth of median household
income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/slower-growth-for-median-household.html
The
Fed
Is the Fed ignoring signs of another financial
collapse?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4212035-is-the-fed-ignoring-signs-of-another-financial-collapse/
Higher for longer, maybe much longer.
Recession
The recession’s start is further delayed.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/ft-booth-september-survey
Government
Shutdown
House leaders have a new plan.
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/20/house-republicans-government-shutdown-new-plan
Civil
Strife
When authorities
believe their citizens will become dangerous.
I agree with Yves, climate change will hardly be the trigger. But that doesn’t change the analysis of what
is happening now.
EU politician
delivers message to the ruling class.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
What happened to
civics, math, history etc. We are
educating a generation that can appreciate the finer aspects of butt f**king
but can’t add or subtract.
Friday morning
humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/exclusive-babylon-bee-uncovers-why-stealth-plane-so-hard-to-find
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