The Morning Call--The economy faces multiple challenges in Q4

The Morning Call

 

9/26/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-dumped-dollar-jumps-shutdown-student-loan-cliff-loom

 

Note: despite what appeared to be a relative quiet day, a lot was happening---(1) the S&P 100 DMA reset to resistance, (2) the dollar close right on the upper boundary of its short-term uptrend and (3) the long Treasury closed within a dollar of the lower boundary of its long-term trading range.  So, are we going to start breaking major support/resistance levels or bounce?  Stay tuned and be careful.

 

            What if.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/what-if-chart

           

            Hedge funds are shorting aggressively.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-time-hedge-funds-were-shorting-heavily-stocks-exploded-higher

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

                          August building permits were up 6.8% versus predictions of +6.9%.

 

The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -18.1 versus expectations of -10.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/25/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-september

 

                        International

 

                        Other

                            

                          The US has a labor shortage crisis.

                           https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/labor-supply-economy-jobs-charts-3285a5b7?mod=hp_lead_pos9

 

                          Update on four high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/update-on-four-high-frequency-indicators.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Fed projections are useless.

              Fed Projections Are Useless - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

              The foolishness of the ‘soft landing’ narrative.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2023/09/24/the-boundless-foolishness-underlying-soft-landing-mythology/?sh=743a73704ab9

 

                          Why some traders aren’t buying ‘higher for longer’.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/why-traders-arent-buying-feds-higher-for-longer-vision-2023-09-25/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=275638659&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8LNg37K-Lzec7DBVxGuZpPJHXLdw6qS_YSnxsDp96FHE9StSy2ANDPW5xzd-y_cmcibDP6ljCTHX3StVoTBqVAezlZcA&utm_content=275638659&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

                        Fiscal Policy

 

              The distorted priorities of our ruling class.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-keep-paying-salaries-tens-thousands-ukrainians-during-government-shutdown

 

                       

            Inflation

 

              It’s inflation, stupid.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-will-continue-until-morale-improves-consumer-sentiment-economy-f6cb5502?mod=hp_opin_pos_5&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=275638659&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9ku3UyJ5VGTQkV2OlKV-Cwu910jc1iK8Q11MbEH2577Uwsq5zVEFhwTX4n0KFl8fuTaEREDb80JttKR1qjjE3MmClZwQ&utm_content=275638659&utm_source=hs_email#cxrecs_s

 

 

                        Recession

 

              The US economy faces multiple challenges in Q4.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-economy-could-withstand-one-shock-but-four-at-once-8312ba51

 

                        Government Shutdown

 

              Congress stares down shutdown deadline.

              https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4221267-congress-stares-down-shutdown-deadline/

 

                          And so far, no one is giving an inch.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gaetz-welcomes-few-days-government-shutdown-stave-americas-financial-ruin

 

                        The coronavirus

 

             Vaccination offers no meaningful protection against long covid.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/vaccination-offers-no-meaningful-protection-against-long-covid-study

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            The AI boom has not gone bust.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/09/why-the-profitable-ai-boom-has-not-gone-bust/

 

            Proper diversification.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/09/22/should-you-t-bill-and-chill/

 

            Who will buy all those Treasuries?

            https://www.ft.com/content/8001a166-b02e-4d33-88a8-54a0553edf02

 

            Bill Gross on bonds.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/25/call-me-ken-gross

 

            The latest rom Morgan Stanley.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mike-wilson-consumer-falling-cliff

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Personal hygiene in colonial America.

https://www.pinkpossible.com/trending/colonial-america-syn/?utm_campaign=VV%3E14%20Colonial%20Hygiene%20Nurith2206%20En%20-%20Display%20USA%20GAQ&utm_source=AdWords&utm_medium=townhall.com&network_code=CBQ&gclid=CjwKCAjw38SoBhB6EiwA8EQVLgZ5z7GJ7RiWAGweFNdrSmC1HnzE79KgM0jwVmBxOP9nC5ZgZn2LlBoCCzgQAvD_BwE

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.