The Morning Call---Apparently, inflation is not in the rear view mirror

 

The Morning Call

 

9/14/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-big-tech-bid-after-soaring-cpi-banks-bullion-skid

 

            A little more weak seasonality then a year end melt up?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/few-more-weeks-weaker-seasonality-and-then-year-end-melt

 

            More on that theme.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-were-starting-see-positive-investor-allocation-talk-ahead-q4-rally

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 220,000 versus consensus of 225,000.

 

August retail sales rose 0.6% versus expectations of +0.2%; ex gas and autos they were up 0.2% versus +0.6%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/retail-sales-unexpectedly-soared-august-gasoline-costs-jumped

 

August PPI was up 0.7% versus predictions of +0.4%; core PPU was up 0.7% versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/producer-prices-soar-august-goods-inflation-reignites

                                       

                        International

                         

July Japanese industrial production fell 1.8% versus estimates of -2.0%; capacity utilization was down 2.2% versus +1.4%.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Lots of red ink at the Fed.

  https://mises.org/wire/lots-red-ink-fed

 

  The strong dollar helps the Fed.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/mighty-dollar-shares-feds-heavy-lifting-2023-09-08/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=273826210&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-95hM6l2UzWVYG2tpd10VTntQpQPst7WnW1KOnx2lwVkXw6KUNmQRPWgAZGUPzC3a2H_90Zwkta8C0SUfygKxN_g1S6EA&utm_content=273826210&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

Recession

 

  More on the divergence of GDP and GDI and the implication for recession.

 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/13/economic-equity-data-points-diverge-lance-roberts

 

  US recession risk still low.

  https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-for-now/

 

Government Shutdown

 

  An unserious government shutdown fight loom.

  https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4197730-an-unserious-shutdown-fight-looms-with-serious-consequences-for-everyone/

 

     Bottom line

 

            The latest from Howard Marks.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/09/13/fewer-losers-winners-markets-funds-howard-marks

 

            Market see-saws have two ends.

            https://www.ft.com/content/dc53f907-3bc1-4d8f-9e3f-b344591fe0be

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

Thursday morning humor.

https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-comforts-911-victims-by-telling-about-the-time-he-was-playing-jenga-and-his-tower-fell-down

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/09/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-985.htm

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.