The Morning Call
9/29/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: market
conditions had reached extreme levels; so, a relief rally wasn’t that
surprising. Nonetheless, a positive tape
was appreciated: (1) the DJIA rallied but is still below its 200 DMA [for the
third day], (2) the long Treasury rallied back above the lower boundary of its long-term
trading range, (3) the dollar fell back to the upper boundary of its short-term
uptrend and (4) the S&P bounced off the lower boundary of its short-term
uptrend. Whether this is just a pause in
the storm, or a reversal is clearly the question which only the market can
answer.
October: bear
killer.
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/729652151854481408/october-almanac-bear-killer-bargain-month
Too many bears.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/too-many-bears
Bear barrage.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bear-barrage
Seasonal weakness.
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2023/09/27/seasonal-weakness/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
August pending home sales fell 7.1% versus
projections of -0.8%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/28/pending-home-sales-plummet-august-2023
August personal income rose 0.4%, in line;
August personal spending was up 0.4%, in line; the August PCE price index was
up 0.4% versus +0.5%; the core PCE index was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.
The September Kansas City Fed manufacturing
index was reported at -13 versus consensus of +5.
International
Q2 UK GDP growth
was +0.2%, in line; Q2 business investment was up 4.1% versus +3.4%.
The August
Japanese unemployment rate was 2.7% versus estimates of 2.6%; August retail
sales were up 0.1% versus +0.4%; August industrial production was flat versus
-0.8%; August YoY housing starts fell 9.4% versus -8.9%; August YoY construction
orders were down 4.3% versus -3.0%; September consumer confidence was 35.0 versus
37.0; September YoY CPI was 2.5% versus 2.6%, ex food and energy, it was up
2.4% versus +2.6%
August German
retail sales declined 1.2% versus predictions of up 0.5%; the September
unemployment rate was 5.7%, in line.
September EU CPI
was up 0.3% versus expectations of +0.7%.
Other
An initial look at
the revised BEA GDP numbers.
More.
Inflation
Update on new home market capitalization.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/trend-for-new-home-market-cap-continues.html
Recession
Is the consumer really slowing down this time?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crying-wolf-us-consumer-again-it-real-time
Fiscal
Policy
The market is changing, so should the
regulators.
The FTC’s Amazon suit is an affront to
consumer and producer welfare.
Spending cuts, not tax increases, are the best
for growth.
Government
Shutdown
McCarthy won’t put a senate bill to a vote in
the house.
Bottom line
What is driving
the September stock swoon?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/business/dealbook/september-stock-swoon.html
Higher for longer
continues to grip the Treasury market.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/higher-for-longer-risk-continues-to-grip-us-treasury-market/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Accenture
press release (NYSE:ACN): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.71 beats by $0.08.
Revenue
of $15.99B (+4% Y/Y) misses by $80M.
Accenture
(NYSE:ACN) declares $1.29/share quarterly dividend, 15.2% increase from prior
dividend of $1.12.
Nike press release (NYSE:NKE): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.94 beats by $0.18.
Revenue
of $12.94B (+2.0% Y/Y) misses by $60M.
What
I am reading today
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