The Morning Call---Are yields peaking?

The Morning Call

 

9/13/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-banks-black-gold-bid-tech-stocks-tumble-ahead-cpi

 

Note: the S&P traded back below its 50 DMA, voiding Monday’s break.  If it can hold above that new higher lower I mentioned yesterday, it would be a positive.  Otherwise, the short term bias becomes to the downside.

 

            Stock performance at the September triple witching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/triple-witching-looms-market-has-done-79-time-last-32-years

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                         

 Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.8% while purchase applications were up 1.3%.

                         

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

                          

                           August CPI was up 0.6%, in line; core CPI was up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-cpi-surges-more-expected-august

 

                        International

 

The July UK GDP growth was -0.5% versus estimates of -0.2%; July industrial production was down 0.7% versus -0.6%; the July trade balance was L-3.5 billion versus L-4.2 billion.

 

July EU industrial production declined 1.1% versus projections of -0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Despite tax hikes, government revenue is down.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/despite-federal-tax-hikes-revenues-are-way-down-here-are-5-reasons-why

 

Inflation

 

  Home price growth rebounded in July.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/corelogic-us-annual-home-price-growth.html

 

Recession

 

  US trade with the world continues to shrink.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/us-trade-with-world-shrinks-again.html

 

  Real household income slid for the third year in a row.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-real-household-incomes-slide-3rd-year-row-white-incomes-slide-black-hispanics-rise

 

  And Jamie Dimon not so upbeat.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/americans-are-making-huge-mistake-believe-certain-booming-economy-narratives-jamie-dimon

 

Government Shutdown

 

  The house is back in session; let the fun begin.

  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/kevin-mccarthy-faces-perfect-storm-demands-shutdown-looms-rcna104490

 

Geopolitics

 

  Three new admissions on Ukraine.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/three-deep-state-admissions-ukraine-emerge-week

 

  Blinken okays attack on Russia using US missiles.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/blinken-oks-attacks-russia-us-missiles

 

  Zelensky issues veiled threat.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-issues-veiled-threat-destabilize-europe-if-weapons-flow-curtailed

 

The Coronavirus

 

  The CIA bribed analysts to change their story on coronavirus origin.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cia-bribed-analysts-change-lab-leak-conclusions-senior-level-whistleblower

 

     Bottom line

 

            Current yields continue to show signs of peaking.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-12-september-2023/

 

            US companies are betting yields are peaking.

            https://www.ft.com/content/3846fc4a-c2b3-405c-80ae-d7ef1e5f4bf4

 

            Profit margins continue to defy skeptics.

            https://www.tker.co/p/profit-margins-defy-expectations

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            How to lead a visionary life.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/09/how-to-lead-visionary-life.html

 

 

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