The Morning Call
9/1/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the charts.
September needs new buyers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-needs-new-buyers-keep-rebound-going
Time to buy the VIX?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/exuberant-vix-0
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The August Chicago PMI was 48.7 versus
expectations of 44.1.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/31/chicago-pmi-hits-one-year-contraction
August nonfarm
payrolls grew by 187,000 jobs versus predictions of 170,000; the August
unemployment rate was 3.8% versus 3.5%.
International
The
August Japanese manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus estimates of 49.7; the August
Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.0 versus 49.3; the August EU
manufacturing PMI was 43.5 versus 43.7; the August German manufacturing PMI was
39.1, in line; the August UK manufacturing PMI was 43.0 versus 42.5.
Other
Update
on big four economic indicators.
The
Fed
The Fed is done.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/08/2-growth-and-2-inflation-feds-done.html
Inflation
The labor market is not tight.
https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/08/29/the-labor-market-is-not-tight/
Part 2.
https://www.axios.com/2023/08/30/labor-market-pre-pandemic-covid-jobs
Inflation in the EU holds steady.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/31/business/europe-eurozone-inflation.html
Recession
The lights are going out.
Business cycle indicators for July.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/08/business-cycle-indicators-for-july
The argument that we have had a recession and it
may already be over.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/philly-fed-gdpplus-measure-sure-looks-recession-started-q4-2022
Consumers burn though $150 billion in savings
in July.
Domestic
Strive
I have avoided
putting the issue of internal conflict up as a risk to the Market because I don’t
want to be alarmist or overly dramatic.
But when my favorite rational progressive (liberal, left leaning) commentator
starts seriously considering the possibility of the use of force or a questionably
constitutional end game in the 2024 elections, I think a discussion should
begin. I will do my best to avoid being
alarmist and injecting my opinions; but it is now time to start considering the
possibility of civil strife as a risk.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/the-other-option-for-containing-trump.html
China
Improvement in China’s factory activity sparks
hope that the worst is over.
Bottom line
Re-examine your recession
playbook.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-time-re-examine-your-us-recession-playbook
Under appreciated
aspects of investing.
https://www.investmenttalk.co/p/neglected-aspects-of-investing
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Friday
morning humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/what-men-talk-about-at-the-cigar-lounge-revealed
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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