Friday, September 1, 2023

The Morning Call---Civil strife as a risk to the Market

The Morning Call

 

9/1/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

               

                Thursday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-commodities-crypto-clubbed-hawkish-august-dollar-soared

 

                September needs new buyers.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/september-needs-new-buyers-keep-rebound-going

               

                Time to buy the VIX?

                https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/exuberant-vix-0

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The August Chicago PMI was 48.7 versus expectations of 44.1.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/31/chicago-pmi-hits-one-year-contraction

 

August nonfarm payrolls grew by 187,000 jobs versus predictions of 170,000; the August unemployment rate was 3.8% versus 3.5%.                   

 

                        International

                         

The August Japanese manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus estimates of 49.7; the August Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.0 versus 49.3; the August EU manufacturing PMI was 43.5 versus 43.7; the August German manufacturing PMI was 39.1, in line; the August UK manufacturing PMI was 43.0 versus 42.5.

 

                        Other

 

              Update on big four economic indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/08/31/personal-income-economic-indicators-rises-july

 

The Fed

 

  The Fed is done.

  https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/08/2-growth-and-2-inflation-feds-done.html

 

Inflation

 

  The labor market is not tight.

  https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/08/29/the-labor-market-is-not-tight/

 

  Part 2.

  https://www.axios.com/2023/08/30/labor-market-pre-pandemic-covid-jobs

 

  Inflation in the EU holds steady.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/31/business/europe-eurozone-inflation.html

 

Recession

 

  The lights are going out.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/lights-are-going-out-albert-edwards-revisits-maddest-chart-explains-so-much

 

  Business cycle indicators for July.

  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/08/business-cycle-indicators-for-july

      

  The argument that we have had a recession and it may already be over.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/philly-fed-gdpplus-measure-sure-looks-recession-started-q4-2022

 

  Consumers burn though $150 billion in savings in July.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-paid-july-spending-spree-burning-through-150bn-savings

 

Domestic Strive

 

I have avoided putting the issue of internal conflict up as a risk to the Market because I don’t want to be alarmist or overly dramatic.  But when my favorite rational progressive (liberal, left leaning) commentator starts seriously considering the possibility of the use of force or a questionably constitutional end game in the 2024 elections, I think a discussion should begin.  I will do my best to avoid being alarmist and injecting my opinions; but it is now time to start considering the possibility of civil strife as a risk.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/08/the-other-option-for-containing-trump.html

 

            China

 

              Improvement in China’s factory activity sparks hope that the worst is over.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/china-s-factory-activity-contracts-again-amid-gloomy-outlook?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line

 

Re-examine your recession playbook.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-time-re-examine-your-us-recession-playbook

 

            Under appreciated aspects of investing.

            https://www.investmenttalk.co/p/neglected-aspects-of-investing

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Friday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/what-men-talk-about-at-the-cigar-lounge-revealed

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 


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