The Morning Call
9/7/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-slammed-stagflation-signals-hawkish-fed-tech-tumult
Note: the S&P
traded back below its 50 DMA; if it remains there through the close today it
will revert to resistance. Clearly not a
positive, but indicative of the lack of consensus over inflation/recession. Looks like I could have given traders the
wrong advice.
Price trends still
skew to the positive.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 216,000 versus predictions of 234,000.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.
Q2 nonfarm productivity
rose 3.5% versus forecasts of 3.4%; Unit labor costs rose 2.2% versus +1.9%.
The July trade
balance was -$65 billion versus expectations of -$68 billion.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/trade-deficit-at-650-billion-in-july.html
The August
services PMI was 50.5 versus consensus of 51.0; the August composite PMI was
50.2 versus 50.4.
The August ISM nonmanufacturing
index was 54.4 versus projections of 52.5.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/ism-services-index-increases-to-545-in.html
International
Q2 EU 3rd estimate of GDP growth
was +0.1% versus estimates of +0.3%.
The July Japanese leading
economic indicators came in at 107.6 versus predictions of 107.9.
Other
June
GDP and coincident indicators.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/monthly-gdp-and-coincident-index
The
Fed
The Fed released its
most recent Beige Book. While it was
mostly the usual dull recitation of things we already knew, it did indicate
that the consumer was starting to hunker down.
Bank of Canada holds rates at 5%.
Fiscal
Policy
Here is an idea that could work just as well
for us as the Brits.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/heres-an-idea-why-not-just-not-do-so
Inflation
The impact of inflation on corporate profits.
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/how-slowing-inflation-can-hit-corporate-profits-1f35a431
Recession
Wrong again.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/09/04/weekly-market-pulse-wrong-again/
The Fed is set to
raise its third quarter GDP growth estimate following strong data reports.
The incredible American consumer.
https://www.ft.com/content/327bf4f7-5330-4f25-ac88-ace77955fc07
On the other hand.
https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2023/09/05/a-consumer-credit-cycle-has-begun/
The labor market---Goldilocks or Golden
Guillotine
https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/09/01/the-labor-market-goldilocks-or-golden-guillotine/
The Financial
System
Global financial watchdog warns of further
challenges.
https://www.ft.com/content/8f16ea1e-f926-4e23-b627-f22e58d0abbb
Geopolitics
Another billion of
your money so that the useless slaughter of Ukrainians can continue. All Blinken needs is a pony to make the show
complete.
Bottom line
August dividends
by the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/dividends-by-numbers-in-august-2023.html
The total return
roller coaster.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/09/06/the-total-return-roller-coaster
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Thursday
morning humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/as-prices-rise-people-who-buy-stuff-hardest-hit
Nobody knows
anything about the future.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/09/nka-john-wick/
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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