The Morning Call
9/15/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-yields-crypto-crude-jump-inflation-expectations-soar
Note: the S&P
finished the day back above its 50 DMA (if it remains there through the close
today, it will revert to support) and, in the process, set a fourth higher low
(clearly a plus). On the other hand, this
the third time it has crossed over the DMA in a week---suggesting investor confusion
and uncertainty. That said, what is
amazing is that equities had such a blow out day in the face of highly inflationary
economic news. Strangely, the narrative
of the day was that, the news notwithstanding, the Fed was done raising rates,
the ECB was done raising rates and China lowered rates. To be sure, if the major central banks are through
tightened, that would be reason enough for a lift in stock prices since it
would imply the inflation has been whipped and the central banks are easing to
avoid a recession (i.e., the Goldilocks story line). It is just odd that that scenario would
present itself on a day in which the economic news suggested just the opposite. However, if that is what the Market is discounting,
then that is what it is discounting and there is little use in fighting the
tape. But before I buy into that
narrative, I would like to see some follow through is stock prices and, at
least, a hint that yesterday’s economic news was an outlier.
Today’s triple witch
is the largest September op-ex on record.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/34-trillion-tomorrows-triple-witch-biggest-september-op-ex-record
Sucking fear out
of the Market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fear-freefall
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The
September NY Fed manufacturing index came in at +1.9 versus projections of
-10.0.
International
The July EU trade balance
was E6.5 billion versus estimates of E20.0 billion.
August Chinese YoY
industrial production was up 4.5% versus expectations of +3.3%; YoY retail sales
were up 4.6% versus +3.0%; YoY fixed asset investments were up 3.2% versus
+3.3%.
Other
The Fed
Despite
the hot PPI number, the market is still not pricing in a rate hike next week.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-still-no-fed-rate-hike-after-hot-inflation-report/
ECB hikes rates for
the tenth time; though it appears that it may be the last.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ecb-unexpectedly-hikes-25bps-record-400
The Chinese central bank cut rates.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-boosts-economy-second-rrr-cut-year
Fiscal
Policy
The ‘green’ crowd continues to try to impose
its will on unwilling Americans.
Tax cuts are here to stay and so are exploding
budget deficits.
Recession
Mortgage demand stalls at a level not seen
since 1996.
The bond market has never forecasted recession
for this long.
Three things are going to negatively impact
Q4 GDP.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/here-are-three-things-about-slam-q4-gdp
China
Xi reprimanded by communist party elders.
Peak China gloom?
Bottom line
Ray Dalio says no
to bonds.
This analyst
disagrees.
https://www.ft.com/content/10deb3ad-d67c-42d4-8d4d-1b73eefa094c
Birinyi’s axioms.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/09/birinyis-axioms/
This kind of speculative
activity by rookies tends to occur in the later stages of a bull market.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.29/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Williams-Sonoma
(NYSE:WSM) declares $0.90/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/09/quotation-of-the-day-4389.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment