The Morning Call--Rising oil prices are a problem for the Fed's soft landing scenario

 

The Morning Call

 

9/20/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-yields-blasted-16-year-highs-stocks-sink-ahead-fed

 

            The stock market correction continues.

            https://allstarcharts.com/this-is-still-a-problem/

 

            The problem with playing short term momentum.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/09/why-traders-are-losing-money-in-recent.html

 

Watch rates volatility closely.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/watching-rates-volatility-closely

 

AI bubble bursting.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-bubble-bursting-hedge-funds-are-furiously-shorting-semi-stocks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 5.4% while purchase applications were up 2.3%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much slower than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

                          July YoY EU construction output rose 1.0% versus projections of -0.7%.

 

The August Japanese trade balance was Y-930 billion versus estimates of Y-659 billion.

 

August German PPI was up 0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

August UK CPI was up 0.3% versus expectations of +0.7%; August core CPI was +0.1% versus +0.6%.

 

                        Other

 

                          LA ports inbound traffic was down in August.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/09/la-port-inbound-traffic-down-yoy-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Rising oil prices are a problem for the Fed’s soft-landing scenario.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/fed-faces-familiar-foe-as-oil-prices-threaten-growth-inflation?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Market pricing not matching the last ‘dot plot’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dot-plot-show-fed-pushing-back-2024-pricing

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Limit the burden of Washington.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/09/19/by_limiting_time_spent_in_washington_we_limit_washingtons_burden_979901.html

 

              Boondoggles in the latest spending bill.

              https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/commentary/boondoggles-7-examples-wasteful-outrageous-earmarks-senate-spending

 

            Recession

 

              US recession probability starts to recede.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/09/us-recession-probability-starts-to.html

 

  Business cycle indicators as of mid-September.

  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/09/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-september-2

 

  The latest Q3 nowcasts.

  https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-median-q3-gdp-nowcast-rises-above-3/#more-20850

 

  Global economy poised to slow as rate hikes bite.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/global-economy-poised-to-slow-as-higher-rates-bite-oecd-says?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

           Geopolitics

 

             The global economy enters era of upheaval.

             https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-geopolitical-investments-economic-shift/?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line.

 

            In praise of dividends.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/09/17/weekly-market-pulse-the-dividend-stock-conundrum/

   

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, 10.3% increase from prior dividend of $0.68.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declared $0.57/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/09/quotation-of-the-day-4394.html

 

                        Investment is an expense.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/mazzonomics

 

The eighth amendment.

https://gnardopolo.substack.com/p/the-eighth-amendment?r=22dt5z

 

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