The Morning Call---Atlanta Fed doubles Q4 GDP growth nowcast

 

The Morning Call

 

1/9/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-black-gold-bid-bonds-big-tech-skid-friday-fears-loom

 

            Thursday in the technical stats

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/local-setup-wildly-interesting-goldman-hedge-fund-honchos-top-charts-stick-out-right-now

 

            All time highs everywhere you look.

            https://www.allstarcharts.com/2026-01-07/all-time-highs-everywhere-you-look

 

            The great broadening.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/the-great-broadening

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          September housing starts fell 4.6% versus forecasts of +0.9%.

 

December nonfarm payrolls were up 50.000 versus projections of +45,000; the December unemployment rate was 4.4% versus 4.6%; December average hourly earnings were up 0.3% versus +0.2%.

 

                        International

 

November Japanese household spending rose 6.2% versus estimates of +2.3%; the preliminary November leading economic indicators were 110.5 versus 110.7.

 

The November German trade balance was +E13.1 billion versus predictions of +E17.1 billion; November industrial production was up 0.8% versus -0.4%.

 

November EU retail sales were up 0.2% versus consensus of +0.5%.

 

The December Chinese CPI came in at +0.2% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          December light vehicle sales were up 1.9%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/08/vehicle-sales-up-1-9-in-december

 

                          Wholesale used cars prices increased slightly in December.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/wholesale-used-car-prices-increased.html

 

                          Atlanta Fed doubles its Q4 GDP growth nowcast.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/atlanta-fed-nearly-doubles-q4-growth-estimate-54-after-strong-data

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to bring down housing-loan rates. Mortgage debt and US home-lender stocks rose premarket.

 

Trump on Venezuela: "I cancelled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks, which looks like it will not be needed, however, all ships will stay in place for safety and security purposes". Trump also said Thursday that the world’s largest oil companies had pledged to spend $100 billion to fulfill his promise of reviving Venezuela’s flagging oil sector.

 

US shale bosses have warned Trump that his mission to seize Venezuela’s oil sector and drive down crude prices will put American output on the chopping block. Trump is set to meet US Big Oil chiefs on Friday, and said Venezuela is cooperating and “cancelled” a second wave of attacks on the country.

 

Treasury Secretary Bessent said US won't force institutional investors to divest from home buying, also said lowering the suspicious activity report threshold to USD 3,000 and noted probe related to money services businesses in Minnesota.

 

Majority of US House voted to support the bill to renew health insurance subsidies for three years.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              M2 velocity continues to move higher.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/08/money-velocity-up-investors-should-care

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Should we care about debt to GDP?

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/01/why-care-about-debt-to-gdp.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              The Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs could come as soon as today.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-supreme-court-rule-against-trumps-tariffs/#more-25178

 

            AI

 

              Language is not the same thing as intelligence.

              https://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2026/01/cutting-edge-research-shows-language-is.html

 

            2026

 

              A review of the financial markets’ predictions for 2025.

              https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/01/06/how-good-were-your-2025-financial-market-forecasts/

 

              Four investment themes for 2026.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/four-investment-themes-2026

 

     Investing

 

            No, this isn’t a bubble.

            No, This Isn’t A Bubble - Carson Group

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            2025 archaeological discoveries that change what we know about the bible.

            These 2025 archaeological discoveries reshaped what we know about the Bible | National Geographic

 

                        Nine science-backed ways of helping yourself feel better.

            https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20251231-nine-simple-steps-to-feeling-better-in-2026

 

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