Thursday, January 8, 2026

The Morning Call---The genius of a stable dollar

 

The Morning Call

 

1/8/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slide-bitcoin-bullion-and-brent-battered

 

Note: the S&P traded back below its all-time high. That negates Monday’s break to the upside. Another move above that high will necessitate restarting the clock for determining a breakout.

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Citadel’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vol-remains-compressed-relative-catalyst-calendar-citadels-equity-strategy-head-warns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 208,000 versus consensus of 205,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-continue-show-no-signs-labor-market-stress

 

                          Q3 nonfarm productivity rose 4.9% versus predictions of +2.9%

 

October factory orders (clearly old news) fell 1.3% versus estimates of down 0.8%; ex transportation, they were off 0.2% versus -0.3%.

 

The October trade balance was -$29.4 billion versus projections of -$54.0 billion.

 

November job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.15 million versus forecasts of 7.7 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/07/jolts-report-job-openings-november-2025

 

The December ISM services index came in at 54.4 versus expectations of 52.0.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/ism-services-report-for-december.html

 

                        International

 

November Japanese YoY average cash earnings were up 0.5% versus consensus of +2.3%; the December consumer confidence index was 37.2 versus 38.1.

 

The November EU unemployment rate was 6.3% versus predictions of 6.4%; November PPI was +0.5% versus +0.4%; the December economic sentiment index was 96.7 versus 96.9; the December industrial sentiment index was +9.0, in line; the December services sentiment index was 5.6 versus 5.1; the December consumer confidence index was -13.1 versus -14.6.

 

                        Other

           

                          Credit growth expanding in US and Europe.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/credit-growth-accelerating-in-the-us-and-europe/

 

                          November median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/median-household-income-in-november-2025.html

 

                          Recap of 2025 US auto sales.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2026/01/06/ugly-charts-of-us-auto-sales-2025-stellantis-nissan-flirt-with-catastrophe-gm-ford-honda-sales-rise-but-far-below-peaks-toyota-hyundai-kia-set-records/

 

                        Overnight News

 

 The White House is drafting an executive order broadly targeted at     addressing Americans’ frustration with the cost of living, including a push to allow people to dip into their retirement and college savings accounts to afford down payments on homes. The draft is also expected to move toward banning large investors from acquiring single-family homes.

 

Trump said our military budget for the year 2027 should not be $1tln, but rather $1.5tln.

 

Trump signs a Presidential Memorandum directing withdrawal of US from participation in 66 international organisations.

 

US officials are said to be working on options for business deals in Greenland, including rare earth minerals mining and hydroelectric power, to step up links to the island.

 

President Trump and his advisers are planning a sweeping initiative to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry for years to come, and the president has told aides he believes his efforts could help lower oil prices to his favored level of $50 a barrel.

 

US oil companies want “serious guarantees” from Washington before they make splashy investments in Venezuela as Trump urges them to back his bid to reshape energy markets.

 

Following Trump’s approval, The Senate could vote as soon as next week to impose new sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end its war with Ukraine.

 

BoE DMP (Dec): 1yr ahead CPI expectations maintained at 3.4%; 3yr ahead maintained at 2.9%. Wage Growth1yr ahead: 3.7% (prev. 3.8%).

 

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said likely seen the last rate cut in the cycle and the likelihood of near term rate cuts is very low, also noted November CPI data was helpful, but largely as expected, according to ABC interview.

 

 

                        Inflation

 

              EU inflation falls to target rate (2%).

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/eurozone-inflation-falls-to-ecb-target-5e1ccf99

 

            The Dollar

 

  The genius of a stable dollar.

  https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/01/07/steve_moore_and_larry_kudlow_owe_trump_straight_talk_on_the_dollar_1156920.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Threatening to seize Greenland shows the lack of understanding of trade.

              https://reason.com/2026/01/06/trump-wants-to-seize-greenland-because-he-doesnt-understand-trade/

 

              Continuing fallout from Venezuela.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-pundits-military-bloggers-are-angry-maduros-capture-highlights-failed-zelensky

 

     Investing

 

            Wall Street’s expensive candy (structured products).

            https://www.wealthmanagement.com/investing-strategies/wall-street-s-expensive-candy

 

            Is silver about to crash?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/silver-about-crash-why-two-banks-thinks-meltdown-looms-next-week

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Best wildlife photos of 2025.

            Here are the best wildlife photos of 2025 | National Geographic

 

            The potential threat from foreign, nonregistered commercial truck drivers.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-migrant-chinese-trucker-caught-trailer-load-puffing-gas-teens

 

 

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