The Morning Call
1/13/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-shrug-trumps-fed-feud-gold-crypto-jump
Monday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Equity volatility
looks too cheap.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-vol-looks-too-cheap-given-our-new-world
VIX one shock away
from forced buying.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-shorts-are-one-shock-away-forced-buying
Bullish gold
rising wedge breakout.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/october-bullish-rising-wedge-breakout?post=549671
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The November small
business optimism index was reported at 99.0 versus forecasts of 99.3.
December CPI was
up 0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%; core inflation was up 0.2%, in line.
International
Other
The growth in household net worth.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/12/household-net-worth-q3-2025
Mixed news from housing permits, construction,
sales and employment.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/september-and-october-housing.html
Problems with the employment stats.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/except-near-recessions-bls-monthly-job-revisions-tend-to-be-positive/
Monetary
Policy---The Powell subpoena fallout.
Who was behind the subpoena?
Gold and silver
stormed to record highs. On the other hand, after an initial dip, most markets
remained stable (which sort of surprised me)---likely realizing the odds of a
successful indictment of Powell are quite low. In other words, it was just
another Trump stink bomb. While the Market reaction makes sense, I am not so
sure about how the electorate will react. As I noted yesterday, I think that
the populace can only take so much manufactured drama before it has had enough---and
clearly Trump’s ratings at least partially reflect that. I assume that Trump is
fighting the ‘affordability’ problem that the dems have hung around his neck. But
I am beginning to think his tactics reflect a sense of desperation.
Let me also opine
that while I disagree with Trump’s desire for lower rates, I have sympathy with
his want for changes at the Fed. In my entire career on Wall Street (57 years),
the Fed has been consistently wrong in its economic assessments and policies
save for the tenure of Paul Volcker who had the very unpleasant job of undoing
the disastrous polices of his predecessor. The Bernanke, Yellen, Powell QE
moneypaloosa has managed to do almost as much damage as Arthur Burns and it
needs to stop---just not in way Trump wants.
Geopolitics
Anarchy is what Trump makes of it.
https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/anarchy-is-what-donald-trump-makes
2026
2026 earnings outlook.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2026-earnings-outlook-another-year-optimism
Investing
Dopamine markets.
https://www.dopaminemarkets.com/p/dopamine-markets-2025-annual-letter
New
year’s resolutions.
Rules matter more than insight (absolute
must read).
https://thefinancialpen.substack.com/p/rules-matter-more-than-insight
The results of a
Goldman investor survey.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/400-professionals-one-view-what-could-possibly-go-wrong
The good, the bad
and the ugly on valuations.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/good-bad-and-ugly-valuation
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Self-care
and performance.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2026/01/self-care-and-performance.html
25 lessons of
money and meaning.
This account from
a Venezuelan security guard.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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