The Morning Call---The Market is positioned for an impossible outcome

 

The Morning Call

 

1/14/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-oil-crypto-jump-amid-geopolitical-chaos

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The calm is lying.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/calm-lying

 

            Gold keeps ripping but some signals are flashing red.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-keeps-ripping-bubble-signals-and-dollar-gap-are-flashing-red

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 28.5% while purchase applications were up 16.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales rose 5.7% versus +7.1% in the prior week.

 

October building permits fell 0.3% versus consensus of +0.7%; new home sales declined 0.1% versus +1.4%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/october-new-home-sales-also-pre.html

 

November PPI was reported at +0.2%, in line; core PPI was 0.0% versus +0.2%.

 

November retail sales increased 0.6% versus estimates of +0.3%; ex autos, they were up 0.5% versus +0.1%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-shrug-k-shaped-economy-upside-surprise-november

 

The January economic optimism index came in at 47.2 versus predictions of 47.4.

 

                        International

 

The December Chinese trade balance was +$114.1 billion versus forecasts of +$105.0 billion.

 

December Japanese YoY machine tool orders were up 10.6% versus expectations of +11.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          A deep dive into yesterday’s CPI number.

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/cpi-up-0-3-percent-in-december-price-of-food-jumps-gasoline-lower/

 

                          Consumer spending remains healthy.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-holiday-spending-jumped-december-signaling-consumer-strength-2026

 

                          Despite a bevy of dramatic headlines, the economy hasn’t changed much.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/monthly-macro-monitor-no-change/?src=news

 

                          Counterpoint.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-13/the-economic-toll-of-trump-s-policies-will-soon-be-visible?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump’s war on interest rates.

              https://reason.com/2026/01/12/trumps-war-on-interest-rates/

 

              Jamie Dimon warns about Trump’s attack on the Fed.

              https://www.ft.com/content/ad823724-822f-4e8c-91fd-01c4e6ca7581

 

            Tariffs

 

              Why have Trump tariffs not been as damaging as many expected?

              https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/about-those-trump-tariffs

 

            The Financial System

 

What stage one of a credit collapse looks like (you can skip over the commercial in the middle of this video).

https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/this-is-what-stage-one-of-a-credit-collapse-looks-like?post=549923

 

     Investing

 

            The Market is positioned for an impossible outcome.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-positioned-impossible-outcome

 

            The quiet reset of crypto.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/cryptos-silent-reset/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP856&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

Sorry, it is not ‘cash on the sidelines’. The author fails to mention that net savings can increase the total money in short term securities without anyone having to sell another security. I have no clue how the size of net savings relates to the size of the short term securities markets; but it would be instructive to know in order to judge the validity of the thesis.

https://wolfstreet.com/2026/01/12/household-money-market-funds-large-cds-hit-records-despite-lower-yields-but-sorry-its-not-cash-on-the-sidelines/

 

 

Predictions are worthless.

https://betterletter.substack.com/p/forecasting-follies-2025

 

            The Trump ‘put’ fades.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-put-fades-political-capital-drains

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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