The Morning Call
1/16/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
closed above its former all-time high, confirming the breakout. That said, I would
characterize this break as ‘just barely with average volume’. In addition, the below
links to technicians and traders all carry a word of caution. Bottom-line, I am
shifting to a more optimistic view, but I want to see a firm follow through
before I start getting too jiggy. For the moment, I am sticking with the view
that this is a Market to be traded not invested in. In the meantime, I am both checking
my Stop Loss points and refreshing my Buy List. Patience.
Thursday
in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from
Goldman’s desk.
Does the bull market have a divergence
problem?
https://trendlabs.com/does-this-bull-market-have-a-divergence-problem/
Equity volatility
is firming.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-volatility-firming-correlation-risk-lurks
Small cap FOMO is
exploding.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/small-cap-fomo-exploding-russell-breaks-out-crowd-wakes
The most crowded
longs and shorts ahead of earnings.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-most-crowded-longs-and-short-ahead-earnings
An $11 trillion
systematic risk in coming in late March.
On the other hand….
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/goldman-go-long-goldsilver-ratio
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
December German CPI came in at 0.0%, in line,
Other
Retail sales and the business cycle.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/real-retail-sales-and-the-business-cycle
Update on big four recession indicators.
Overnight
News
Trump to (try to) force tech giants to pay for
soaring power costs.
Fiscal
Policy
Trump versus the free market.
https://reason.com/2026/01/14/trump-vs-free-markets/
How state capital is reshaping strategic
supply chains.
Recession
Another pre-recession warning.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/important-scenes-from-recessonary.html
Real average hourly earnings have been negative
for five months.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/real-average-hourly-earnings-have-been-negative-for-five-months/
The elusive recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/they-seek-it-here-they-seek-it-there
Inflation
New home affordability improves.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/new-homes-become-affordable-for-typical.html
Groceries rose 9% MoM (annualized) in December.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/groceries-rose-9-m-m-annualized-in-december
The
Financial System
Private credit firms dropping safeguards to
win deals.
2026
Ten economic tailwinds in 2026.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/stagflation-in-2025-overheating-in-2026/
Investing
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Why
China’s rare earth ‘monopoly’ won’t last.
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/chinas-rare-earth-monopoly-and-why-markets-will-break-it/
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