Friday, January 16, 2026

The Morning Call---Does this bull market have a divergence problem?

 

The Morning Call

 

1/16/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-big-tech-lifts-stocks-de-escalation-sends-oil-gold-crypto-lower

 

Note: the S&P closed above its former all-time high, confirming the breakout. That said, I would characterize this break as ‘just barely with average volume’. In addition, the below links to technicians and traders all carry a word of caution. Bottom-line, I am shifting to a more optimistic view, but I want to see a firm follow through before I start getting too jiggy. For the moment, I am sticking with the view that this is a Market to be traded not invested in. In the meantime, I am both checking my Stop Loss points and refreshing my Buy List. Patience.

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/expectations-are-no-longer-cheap-top-goldman-trader-warns-hedge-risks-everyone-knowsbut-few

 

            Does the bull market have a divergence problem?

            https://trendlabs.com/does-this-bull-market-have-a-divergence-problem/

 

            Equity volatility is firming.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-volatility-firming-correlation-risk-lurks

 

            Small cap FOMO is exploding.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/small-cap-fomo-exploding-russell-breaks-out-crowd-wakes

 

            The most crowded longs and shorts ahead of earnings.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-most-crowded-longs-and-short-ahead-earnings

 

            An $11 trillion systematic risk in coming in late March.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/an-11-trillion-systemic-risk-is-coming-in-late-march?post=550467

 

            On the other hand….

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/goldman-go-long-goldsilver-ratio

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                          December German CPI came in at 0.0%, in line,

 

                        Other

 

                          Retail sales and the business cycle.

                              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/real-retail-sales-and-the-business-cycle

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/14/recession-indicators-real-retail-sales-november-2025

           

            Overnight News

 

              Trump to (try to) force tech giants to pay for soaring power costs.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/emergency-intervention-trump-cap-residential-electric-bills-forcing-tech-giants-pay-soaring

           

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump versus the free market.

              https://reason.com/2026/01/14/trump-vs-free-markets/

 

              How state capital is reshaping strategic supply chains.

              https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2026/01/12/how-us-state-capital-is-reshaping-strategic-supply-chains/

 

            Recession

 

              Another pre-recession warning.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/important-scenes-from-recessonary.html

             

 Real average hourly earnings have been negative for five months.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/real-average-hourly-earnings-have-been-negative-for-five-months/

 

              The elusive recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/they-seek-it-here-they-seek-it-there

 

            Inflation

 

              New home affordability improves.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/new-homes-become-affordable-for-typical.html

 

             Groceries rose 9% MoM (annualized) in December.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/groceries-rose-9-m-m-annualized-in-december

 

The Financial System

 

              Private credit firms dropping safeguards to win deals.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/private-credit-drops-safeguard-to-win-deals-on-wall-street-terms?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            2026

 

              Ten economic tailwinds in 2026.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/stagflation-in-2025-overheating-in-2026/

 

     Investing

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why China’s rare earth ‘monopoly’ won’t last.

            https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/chinas-rare-earth-monopoly-and-why-markets-will-break-it/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment