Thursday, January 29, 2026

The Morning Call---Now is not the time to be speculating

 

The Morning Call

 

1/29/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-shrugs-fed-dollar-bounces-bessent-sp-stalls-gamma-wall-after-record-high

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Another contrarian indicator.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-chart-tracks-the-single-greatest-predictor-of-stock-market-returns-and-its-never-done-this-before-171daf85?st=2GRrWF

 

            Relentless vol.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/range-bound-stocks-restless-vol

 

            Is this really a dollar breakdown?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/really-dollar-breakdown

 

            Goldmageddon (so, I was a bit too early).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldmaggedon-shanghai-love

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 209,000 versus consensus of 205,000.

 

Final Q3 nonfarm productivity rose 4.9%, in line; unit labor costs fell 1.9%, also in line.

 

The November trade balance was -$56.8 billion versus predictions of -$37.0 billion.

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese consumer confidence index was 37.9 versus estimates of 37.6.

 

The January EU economic sentiment index came in at 99.4 versus expectations of 97.5; the January industrial sentiment index was -6.8 versus -9.0; the January services sentiment index was 7.2 versus 5.4; the January consumer confidence index was -12.4, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          What to make of weak consumer sentiment.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-weak-consumer-sentiment-flashing-a-economic-warning/

 

The regional Fed manufacturing indices suggest continued growth with inflation.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/regional-fed-manufacturing-indexes.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC wrapped up its January meeting yesterday with no change in rates and a narrative that suggests that there will be no change in rates, at least through Powell’s term as Fed chair. The reaction of the long bond (down) and gold (up) is all you need to know about the Market’s opinion (concern about inflation).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-34

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A shutdown approaches.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shutdown-approaches-schumer-white-house-attempt-11th-hour-deal

 

            Inflation

 

              What is the Fed’s real inflation target?

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/what-is-feds-real-inflation-target.html

 

     Investing

 

            Who has been buying all that gold?

            https://www.ft.com/content/a2539a6a-284a-40be-a77c-b91ed5bb2a65

 

            A new force in the gold market.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-28/tether-is-a-new-force-to-be-reckoned-with-in-the-gold-market?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

The dollar is sinking and Trump thinks that is great. (remember a declining dollar is inflationary)

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/27/the-dollar-is-sinking-trump-thinks-its-great-00750307?nid=00000150-1596-d4ac-a1d4-179e288b0000&nname=illinois-playbook&nrid=00000150-1fe4-d781-a370-5fe55f5c0000

 

            The hardest part about investing.

            https://chartkidmatt.com/p/the-hardest-part-about-investing

 

            Now is not the time to be speculating.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/when-all-bets-are-off-all-bets-are-on-7b8bd8fd?st=9vVr18

 

            Why the yield curve is steepening.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/understanding-demand-for-treasuries-and-why-the-yield-curve-is-steepening/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2026/01/quotation-of-the-day-5267.html

 

 

 

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