The Morning Call
1/15/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P
closed right on its all-time high. Recall that it broke above that barrier last
Friday. Under my time and distance discipline, it needed to remain above it
through the close yesterday. However, in a situation where it ends neither
above nor below a boundary, the clock stops. It will restart today. So, if the
index finishes back above the high, the break to the upside will be confirmed;
if below, then the break will be negated. Where the latter to occur, near in support
exists at the 50 DMA (~6816). I also note that breadth was decent despite the fall
in the Average.
Wednesday
in the technical stats
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.
Whispers of
trouble.
More than an
excuse to sell.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/more-than-excuse-to-sell?post=550230
Oil and silver
tumble after report of no immediate US action in Iran,
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 198,000 versus
estimates of 212,000.
December existing
home sales were up 5.1% versus expectations of down 1.6%.
The January NY Fed
manufacturing index came in at 7.7 versus consensus of 1.0; the January Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index was 12.6 versus -4.
International
November UK GDP
grew 0.3% versus predictions of -0.1%; November industrial production was up
1.1% versus -0.3%; the November trade balance was -L6.1 billion versus -L3.5
billion.
November EU industrial
production was up 0.7% versus forecasts of up 0.2%; the November trade balance
was +E9.9 billion versus +E19.5 billion.
December Japanese
PPI was up 0.1% versus projections of up 0.2%.
December German
PPI was down 0.2% versus estimates of +0.2%; 2025 GDP grew 0.2%, in line.
Other
YoY retail sales could spell trouble.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/monthly-retail-sales-sharply-higher-in.html
Highest Q4 layoffs since 2008.
Monetary
Policy
The Fed has missed its inflation target on ten
different measures.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-fed-has-missed-its-inflation-target-on-ten-different-measures/
Fiscal
Policy
Credit card rate caps are bad news.
Blowback builds against Powell subpoena.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/us/politics/jerome-powell-investigation-blowback.html
Inflation
A long term look at CPI.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/13/inflation-cpi-since-1872
Tariffs
Here are Trump’s options if the Supreme Court
rules against his tariffs.
Investing
Killing the goose that
lays the golden egg.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/01/13/killing-the-goose-that-lays-the-golden-egg/
The confidence
paradox.
https://larryswedroe.substack.com/p/the-confidence-paradox-d7a
Instability in the
Market.
https://www.ft.com/content/44adb246-ac64-4b56-9254-67f0f943d2dc
How
deficits inflate profitability and valuations. John Hussman made
this exact point in a recent post. However, it is so important that I am emphasizing
it again. If you didn’t read the Hussman article, please read this.
The Market premium
for the 10 year Treasury near fair value.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/market-premium-for-10-year-yield-holds-near-fair-value-estimate/
Investor Alert
In my quarterly
review of our Universe, Kroger (KR) failed to meet the minimum financial
criteria for inclusion. Accordingly, it will be Removed from the Dividend Growth
Universe and will be Sold from the Dividend Growth Portfolio at the Market
Open.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock press
release (BLK): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $13.16 beats by
$0.95.
Revenue of $7B
(+23.2% Y/Y) beats by $330M.
BlackRock (BLK) declares $5.73/share quarterly dividend, 10% increase from
prior dividend of $5.21.
Automatic Data
Processing (ADP) declares $1.70/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP)
board approved a new
$6B authorization to repurchase its common stock.
What
I am reading today
The
tyranny of complainers.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/01/the-tyranny-of-the-complainers.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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