Wednesday, January 28, 2026

The Morning Call---Central bank holdings tell you everything you need to know about inflation.

 

The Morning Call

 

1/28/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-demise-just-getting-going-bullion-bid-healthcare-hammers-hedgies

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Dealer balance sheets mask a potential risk for stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dealer-balance-sheets-mask-potent-risk-stocks

 

            Watch gold volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/watching-gold-volatility-key-here

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 8.5% while purchase applications were flat.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 7.1% versus +5.5% in the prior week.

 

The November home price index was up 0.6% versus estimates of up 0.3%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/27/house-price-index-fhfa-jumps-new-record-high-november-2025

 

The November Case Shiller home price index was flat versus expectations of -0.2%.

 

More on new and existing home prices.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/repeat-home-sales-indices-for-november.html

 

The January Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -6 versus forecasts of -3.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/27/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-mostly-unchanged-in-january

 

The January consumer confidence index came in at 84.5 versus projections of 88.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/27/consumer-confidence-plummets-to-lowest-level-since-2014

 

                        International

 

The February German consumer confidence index came in at -24.1 versus consensus of -26.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          How consumers spend their money.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/visualizing-how-consumer-expenditures.html

 

                          Hard to imagine an economic slowdown.

 

  https://wolfstreet.com/2026/01/26/hard-to-imagine-an-economic-slowdown-until-this-business-investment-boom-fizzles-core-capital-goods-orders-show-why/

 

 

                          US productivity gains not reaching workers.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/27/u-s-productivity-gains-no-reach-workers

 

                                  US consumer debt at all-time high.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/total-us-consumer-debt-is-at-an-all-time-high?post=552673

 

                         The latest freight shipping indices not promising.

                         https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-do-truck-shipping-indexes-say-about-the-us-economy/

 

            Overnight News

 

President Trump has said for months that he’s made up his mind about who should lead the Federal Reserve. But with each passing week without an announcement, some people close to the process aren’t sure any of his four finalists fully meet his requirements, a new chair who will pursue his demands for lower interest rates while still commanding enough credibility on Wall Street and from his colleagues to deliver them.

 

Bond traders are betting on a dovish Fed shift as BlackRock’s Rick Rieder gains momentum to succeed Powell. His advocacy for more aggressive cuts have sparked increased trading activity in futures and options markets.

 

Some Bank of Japan board members expressed rising concern over the extent to which the yen’s depreciation is affecting price trends when they discussed policy in December before deciding at that meeting to raise the benchmark interest rate to the highest since 1995.

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Markets are saying that rates are on hold until June.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-rate-cuts-on-hold-till-june-according-to-market-forecasts/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The upside to social program spending.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/01/27/social_security_medicaid_and_medicare_protect_us_from_much_worse_1160661.html

 

              Record debt in the world’s richest economies threatens economic growth.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/27/business/economy/government-debt-bonds.html

 

              Steaming towards a government shutdown.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/government-steams-towards-partial-shutdown-amid-democrat-demands-over-ice

 

            Inflation

 

              Central bank holdings tell you everything you need to know about inflation.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/01/gold-central-bank-holdings-saying-no-to.html

 

 

     Investing

 

            Gold versus stocks.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-maybe-we-need-our-golden-fetters/?src=news

 

            The era of the commodity premium is here to stay.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/era-commodity-premium-here-stay

 

            The dollar hits a four year low.

            https://www.ft.com/content/04c785c0-9ca4-4a85-a279-d95c9d8f1f80

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How did the walls of ancient Jericho fall?

            Is there archaeological evidence for the Biblical fall of Jericho? | National Geographic

           

 

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