The Morning Call
1/22/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P regained
its 50 DMA, invalidating Tuesday’s break. Plus it has yet to close Tuesday’s
gap down opening. Both are clearly good news. However, it still has to regain
its former all time high (~6927) by Friday or last week’s breakout will be
voided. Bottom line, yesterday’s pin action was positive, but the Market is not
out of the woods yet. Stay patient.
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The
Russell 2000 still has more legs.
The
latest from Goldman’s desk.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 200,000 versus
forecasts of 195,000.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 5.5% versus +5.7% in the prior week.
Q3 final GDP growth
was +4.4% versus expectations of +4.3%; the final PCE index was +3.7%, in line;
final corporate profits were up 4.7% versus +4.4%; final real consumer spending
was +3.5%, in line.
October
construction spending rose 0.5% versus projections of +0.1%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/stale-data-watch-construction-spending.html
December pending home
sales fell 9.3% versus estimates of up 1.4%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/21/pending-home-sales-sink-december-2025
International
The December Japanese
trade balance was +Y103.7 billion versus predictions of -Y400.0 billion.
Other
Zero sum economics keep failing.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/zero-sum-economics-keeps-failing
Overnight
News
US House GOP
leaders are struggling to strike a deal with Republican hard-liners
tonight that would allow the final government funding package to advance.
"The Rules Committee recessed Wednesday evening without a solution. Senior
Rs hope to reconvene the panel by 9 pm"
Volodymyr
Zelenskiy is traveling to Davos to meet with Trump, a person familiar said. US
envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will go to Russia for talks with
Vladimir Putin.
For the first time
since the start of the private-credit boom, large numbers of individual
investors are trying to get their money out. Several of the biggest funds
eligible to wealthy individuals received requests from about 5% of shareholders
to cash out at the end of last year, well above the normal volume, according to
SEC filings.
Fiscal
Policy
Trump followed his
‘art of the deal’ strategy on Greenland---making enormous demands, then
settling for less but nonetheless, (for the moment at least, apparently) getting
what he wants. In this case, greater access to Greenland’s natural resources and
territory as part of his defense strategy. The MSM derisively calls it TACO
(Trump always chickens out), but it is just part of the ‘art of the deal’. There
are so many headlines from yesterday’s Davos speech and CNBC interview, it
would take pages to review them all or link to other’s reviews. Below is just a
list.
The latest on Greenland.
Central planning gone awry.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-central-planning-gone-awry/?src=news
Inflation
Markets
are telling us inflation isn’t gone. (I agree with this analysis except that it
gives too much credit to Powell)
https://trendlabs.com/the-market-is-telling-the-fed-chair-inflation-isnt-gone/
Growth is back; so is the potential inflation problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/growth-back-so-potentially-inflation-problem
Expect big differences this year between CPI
and PCE inflation.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/expect-a-big-divergence-this-year-between-cpi-and-pce-inflation/
The
Dollar
The dollar slips
amidst Trump Greenland threat. (Pay close attention to the last paragraph).
https://www.ft.com/content/4e5440f3-e0e8-44c1-83b4-a7a131647278
Investing
The stock market
performance since Liberation Day.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/stock-market-performance-since-liberation-day-2/
The 2026 outlook
for S&P 500 dividends.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
Bitcoin’s myths
are breaking.
The short term
pros and cons for gold.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golden-reversal-meets-golden-upgrade
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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